good thread ...but I'd add that if the r0 is understated bc there are X shadow-cases of asymptomatic covid19 for every Y apparent cases, this is good news, bc society becomes saturated at lower count - instead of max 330M cases, we have max 100M + 230M asymptomatic shadow caseshttps://twitter.com/lymanstoneky/status/1240291839892058112 …
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Right, but my point is that at this point it's not (I think!) the R0 that is in question, but the base rate. Whatever the ratio between mild and serious cases, the transmission rate we're currently seeing should be reflected in the growth rate of serious cases.
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I think this is correct. If so, it means that "lots of asymptomatic cases" is very good news. If CFR is better than we thought and R0 is the same, then if we end up at herd immunity instead of eradication then the infected population is still "only" 50-66% instead of 90-98%
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Thank you for this explanation
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Caveat: the latter case is _much_ harder to contain if asymptomatic cases spread at all.
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Meanwhile, I recently won a free normie rightist who, in the same tweet, said "nobody on the right is denying science" (lol, stupidity is bipartisan) and "testing asymptomatic people is a waste" (when pressed his reasoning was "testing asymptomatic people has false positives")
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