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MorlockP's profile
ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs
ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs
ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs
@MorlockP

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ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs

@MorlockP

Two-time Prometheus award-winning hard science fiction author. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B005JPPMS6  Learn how to homestead https://www.amazon.com/dp/B093BC3K1T 

Aristillus Crater, Luna
amazon.com/dp/B005JPPMS6
Joined June 2012

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    ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 18 Mar 2020

    ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬

    good thread ...but I'd add that if the r0 is understated bc there are X shadow-cases of asymptomatic covid19 for every Y apparent cases, this is good news, bc society becomes saturated at lower count - instead of max 330M cases, we have max 100M + 230M asymptomatic shadow caseshttps://twitter.com/lymanstoneky/status/1240291839892058112 …

    ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs added,

    Lyman Stone 石來民  🦬 🦬 🦬 @lymanstoneky
    I keep seeing people say that the mortality rate is <4% but deaths per cases thus far are at 4% and deaths make up 8.9% of *completed* cases. And these numbers aren't falling anymore; they're *rising*.
    Show this thread
    8:06 AM - 18 Mar 2020
    • 3 Retweets
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    • Russ Nelson operation lockstep idprism ❤ 🇺🇸 ✠ Some Other Nick 👑🐻‍❄️Welsh Temperate Rainforest Bear 👑🐻‍❄️ Oberon Frank Vance Barbarian Horde of One AQ zywiec
    2 replies 3 retweets 16 likes
      1. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 18 Mar 2020

        2/ So if we could either have an r0 of 4 and a CFR of 1%, or an r0 of 12 and a CFR of 0.3% giving rise to 2 shadow cases w 0% CFR for every apparent case with 1% CFR, we'd far prefer the latter, bc "on book" cases have an absolute ceiling of 1/3 of the population

        4 replies 1 retweet 13 likes
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      2. Lucio Martelli‏ @LucioMM1 18 Mar 2020
        Replying to @MorlockP

        man a lot of data points to 10x asymptomatic/low mild cases.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Poi‏ @poiThePoi 18 Mar 2020
        Replying to @LucioMM1 @MorlockP

        "Mild" means you weren't on 24/7 oxygen for weeks on end. There's a very long range between that and "nothing". /For example, the sort of disease where you crawl to the fridge and have a pillow halfway there.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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