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MorlockP's profile
ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs
ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs
ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs
@MorlockP

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ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs

@MorlockP

Two-time Prometheus award-winning hard science fiction author. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B005JPPMS6  Learn how to homestead https://www.amazon.com/dp/B093BC3K1T 

Aristillus Crater, Luna
amazon.com/dp/B005JPPMS6
Joined June 2012

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    1. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 13 Mar 2020
      Replying to @shylockh

      Has the Fed EVER bought stocks? That's not what they do. Their knobs are money supply and interest rate.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    2. Shylock Holmes‏ @shylockh 13 Mar 2020
      Replying to @MorlockP

      Indeed, they haven't. But they showed a willingness to buy "other stuff" in a crisis with TARP, to indirectly prop up equity values. To the extent that this is very much a real economy shock and not a financial shock, monetary policy may not do much. So what then?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Shylock Holmes‏ @shylockh 13 Mar 2020
      Replying to @shylockh @MorlockP

      It's clear that at least one of the actual goals is "keep stock prices up". At what point do they just drop the mask on that?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Shylock Holmes‏ @shylockh 13 Mar 2020
      Replying to @shylockh @MorlockP

      The original tweet was a little facetious. This probably won't happen, but it's definitely a non-trivial possibility.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 13 Mar 2020
      Replying to @shylockh

      It's a trivial possibility / won't happen. My bet. As @unhygenicmacro said, there are other tools to do that job...and it's not even the right job. Fed is not opposed to stock market corrections which reflect actual truth on the ground. They're opposed to epiphenomena

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Shylock Holmes‏ @shylockh 13 Mar 2020
      Replying to @MorlockP

      You're probably right. The difficulty comes when real effects start producing financial effects, which was what happened in 2008. I think most people didn't expect the Fed would buy CDOs outright either.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Shylock Holmes‏ @shylockh 13 Mar 2020
      Replying to @shylockh @MorlockP

      If they judge the decline to be "irrationally large", and that this is having real negative consequences, it seems less crazy to imagine.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Shylock Holmes‏ @shylockh 17 Mar 2020
      Replying to @shylockh @MorlockP

      https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200317b.htm … Update - they're now taking commercial paper and municipal bonds as collateral. Still not equities, and still not direct open market purchases, but they're definitely taking non-trivial credit risk on their balance sheet with this.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    9. Shylock Holmes‏ @shylockh 18 Mar 2020
      Replying to @shylockh @MorlockP

      https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/cf485398-689d-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3 … No, wait, they ARE lending against stocks too. Genuinely interested to know if this is consistent with your prior expectations, @MorlockP.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    10. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 18 Mar 2020
      Replying to @shylockh

      ah, this is a tricky, and comes down to definitions. I pushed back against "will buy stocks" bc that implied, to my mind, socialism / backdoor nationalization / doing anything to keep stock prices up this is loaning AGAINST ... TOTALLY DIFFERENT! ... except ... >>>

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 18 Mar 2020
      Replying to @MorlockP @shylockh

      as with VCs taking convertible debt instead of equity, where we see that the line is actually pretty fuzzy, now we've got feds taking stock as collateral ... which can be forfeit if the debt isn't paid so I want to say "doesn't update my priors AT ALL"...but also realize I dunno

      6:27 AM - 18 Mar 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 18 Mar 2020
          Replying to @MorlockP @shylockh

          perhaps someone who knows more about this (@unhygenicmacro , @ByrneHobart ) wants to weigh in ?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Shylock Holmes‏ @shylockh 18 Mar 2020
          Replying to @MorlockP @ByrneHobart

          Classic central banks. No, we're not "buying" stocks! Heavens no. We're just issuing an indefinite term, hundred cents in the dollar non-recourse loan against stocks. The ECB pioneered this with the Euro bailout.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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