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MorlockP's profile
ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs
ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs
ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs
@MorlockP

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ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs

@MorlockP

Two-time Prometheus award-winning hard science fiction author. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B005JPPMS6  Learn how to homestead https://www.amazon.com/dp/B093BC3K1T 

Aristillus Crater, Luna
amazon.com/dp/B005JPPMS6
Joined June 2012

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    1. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 13 Feb 2020

      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted

      21/ Viruses do not evolve towards harmlessness https://twitter.com/browserdotsys/status/1228164137735163905?s=19 …

      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      3 replies 1 retweet 21 likes
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    2. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

      22/ update since yesterday:pic.twitter.com/i3DuGpQcvn

      1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
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    3. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

      23/ Note that we're compounding at 10% per day, day after day after day. In finance there's something called "the rule of 72". To very quickly estimate how long something takes to double, divide the number 72 by the percentage increase. 72/10 =~ 7

      2 replies 0 retweets 18 likes
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    4. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

      24/ So based on this data, we can expect total coronavirus cases to double every 1 week. dcc 1000000000 64437 2 12 ^ * / p 12 weeks / 3 months from today we can expect 25% of the Chinese population to be infected, and ~6 million corpses

      3 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
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    5. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

      25/ I'm going to assume that US has a low rate of increase - 5% per day, not 10%. That means our doubling time is 2 weeks, not 1 week. 12 weeks out we have 6 doublings 15 * 2^6 = ~750 cases I'm guessing that we see a vaccine in < 6 months. I don't think US is hit too hard

      2 replies 1 retweet 12 likes
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    6. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

      26/ China, though?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8VRbaVNvSA&t=43m40s …

      2 replies 1 retweet 11 likes
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    7. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted Señor Bob

      27/https://twitter.com/Bobthewelding1/status/1228328705547800582 …

      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs added,

      Señor Bob @Bobthewelding1
      Replying to @MorlockP
      pic.twitter.com/DVNfsZtU3Z
      1 reply 1 retweet 29 likes
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    8. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted

      28/ https://twitter.com/kathrynholiday/status/1228329259434938371 …

      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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    9. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

      29/ I'm not BETTING on things going absolutely terrible, but reminder: the following is STILL ON THE TABLE * 200 M dead in China * 400 M dead in Africa * 10 M dead in US * 10 M dead in Europe I'd bet against this at, say, 20:1 or 30:1 ...but it's within the bellcurve, I think

      6 replies 0 retweets 23 likes
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    10. SHelmuth‏ @shelmuth85 13 Mar 2020
      Replying to @MorlockP

      I'm trying to do some super morbid financial calculations. Do you have a total death number you would confidently give for US?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 13 Mar 2020
      Replying to @shelmuth85

      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs

      https://twitter.com/MorlockP/status/1238544843854565376 …

      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs added,

      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs @MorlockP
      100/ That was my extreme high limit, based on minimal data, and I bet against it at "20:1 or 30:1". A month later, and we've got better data. Today the CDC estimate for American deaths is " As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die." https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html …
      Show this thread
      12:21 PM - 13 Mar 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. SHelmuth‏ @shelmuth85 13 Mar 2020
          Replying to @MorlockP

          Yes, saw it just after. Thanks.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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