21/ Viruses do not evolve towards harmlessness https://twitter.com/browserdotsys/status/1228164137735163905?s=19 …
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23/ Note that we're compounding at 10% per day, day after day after day. In finance there's something called "the rule of 72". To very quickly estimate how long something takes to double, divide the number 72 by the percentage increase. 72/10 =~ 7
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24/ So based on this data, we can expect total coronavirus cases to double every 1 week. dcc 1000000000 64437 2 12 ^ * / p 12 weeks / 3 months from today we can expect 25% of the Chinese population to be infected, and ~6 million corpses
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25/ I'm going to assume that US has a low rate of increase - 5% per day, not 10%. That means our doubling time is 2 weeks, not 1 week. 12 weeks out we have 6 doublings 15 * 2^6 = ~750 cases I'm guessing that we see a vaccine in < 6 months. I don't think US is hit too hard
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26/ China, though?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8VRbaVNvSA&t=43m40s …
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29/ I'm not BETTING on things going absolutely terrible, but reminder: the following is STILL ON THE TABLE * 200 M dead in China * 400 M dead in Africa * 10 M dead in US * 10 M dead in Europe I'd bet against this at, say, 20:1 or 30:1 ...but it's within the bellcurve, I think
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Replying to @MorlockP
I'm trying to do some super morbid financial calculations. Do you have a total death number you would confidently give for US?
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