That tweet is deleted, but heck, I'm worried about the combination of a lack of hospital beds *between 1 and 3 weeks from now* and the math around Lack of Testing + Incubation
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What do you think about the idea that we already have a ton of cases, we just don't know about them because we're not testing?
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Presumably the situation. By the time someone presents symptoms sufficient to prompt testing (flu-like but so severe as to suggest hospitalization), they've been contagious upwards of two weeks. I may very well be getting over it. Just "something that's been going around" 2wks.
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Well there is a finite number of folks in the demo that is seeing the vast majority of the fatalities...so realistically there is a peak demand then a sharp drop. Non-demo victims (doctors, nurses etc) seem to succumb to extreme viral loads (ie constant exposure). So...
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...really unpleasant solution is to simply let it burn through the elderly pop by intentionally refusing care to those who meet certain thresholds. The opposite response is no longer possible: early and complete quarantine is no longer possible. So we’re left with bad choices.
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I got to use this to explain exponential vs linear progression to my 11 year old today. 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16 vs 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256. It ain't where you start, it's where you end up. She grok'd it. I was proud.
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I think some exponential growth will happen, but that’s not limitless - tapers off. Right now my best guess is “gonna be much worse than a bad flu season, HOW much worse largely depends on spreading cases out vs sudden demand.” Even double flu deaths is not end of the world AWKI
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