2/ I'm assuming 50% infection rate, 10% death rate (far higher than we'll see in the West). x 1.2 billion = 60 million deadhttps://twitter.com/poiThePoi/status/1232691712910295041 …
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3/ Previous African pandemics have been nipped in the bud by massive western intervention. ...but this time, the west is going to export far fewer doctors, masks, etc. because we'll be busy at home. African health care is, to a good approximation, non existent. >>>
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4/ And I have no a priori reason to expect that Africans will behave in a low-time-preference, high conscientiousness manner. >>>
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5/ read things like this > Sub-Saharan Africa alone accounted for an estimated 69 percent of all people living with HIV and 70 percent of all AIDS deaths in 2011 to establish baselines for how Africans will act / how Africa will be hit by a pandemic.
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6/ Also, we in the west are well placed for turtling up, working remotely, purchasing food and supplies via Amazon / Walmart / UPS, which means that a few firms can take precautions to sterilize packages. Africans can't do that - work and shopping is all f2f.
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7/ and finally, wealth makes everything better, poverty makes everything worse. How much does a box of facemasks and a bunch of standard medicines cost, as a percent of your weekly disposable income? ...as a percent of an African's disposable income?
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Astute.
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I wouldn't bet against it.
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