7/ There have certainly been a few periods where the multi-decade compounded return on the market have been < 0, clustering around the Great Depression. But I'm not getting out of the market, nor am I staying out for very long. Just reducing exposurehttps://twitter.com/tom_hynes/status/1230602133331828736 …
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ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted LCDR Fish Loves Flicks
8/ I don't understand any part of this.https://twitter.com/FishLikesFlicks/status/1230604476601524224 …
ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs added,
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ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted vector (fish angel)
9/ If you can pay your mortgage off entirely, do that. If you can't, make an emergency fund of as many months of mortgage payments as you can, and keep it liquid (a checking account).https://twitter.com/BonbonFork/status/1230609191456382976 …
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10/ Chance of being unemployed for 12 months is a lot lower than of being unemployed for 6 months. Chance of 6 is lower than chance of 3 months, etc. ...and you're almost guaranteed to be unemployed for 1 month at some point. decreasing marginal utility to emergency savings
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ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted Tu quoque
11/ Let's say that there's a Ford plant in Michigan which assembles cars. Computer dash unit comes from China. Ford has a 10 day supply on hand. China factory calls up says "expect no shipments for 60 days". Ford shuts down the assembly line.https://twitter.com/The_Hinton/status/1230626235837014017 …
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12/ Just for 60 or 90 days or whatever. But as part of that, they furlough 10,000 workers (who no longer buy breakfast at the six Dunkies near the factory), and they stop buying seatbelts & seats & bumpers from other factories for 90 days. Those factories furlough another 5k
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13/ Ford calls up the Wall Street analysts and gives them "guidance" saying "our year over year profit was going to be +3%, but is now expected to be +1.5%".
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ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted vector (fish angel)
14/ meh I generally agree with EMH ("efficient market hypothesis"). People much smarter than me, who are paid to study markets have already made their best guesses, and the current market prices reflect those good insights. >>>https://twitter.com/BonbonFork/status/1230634152417992705 …
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Replying to @MorlockP
And any $20 bill you find on the street can't possibly be real because if it were, someone else would already have picked it up.
#EfficientMarketHypothesis1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
markets are more efficient than streets - instead of 100 people per hours looking at data, there are 10 million, many of them bots
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