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MorlockP's profile
ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs
ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs
ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs
@MorlockP

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ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs

@MorlockP

Two-time Prometheus award-winning hard science fiction author. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B005JPPMS6  Learn how to homestead https://www.amazon.com/dp/B093BC3K1T 

Aristillus Crater, Luna
amazon.com/dp/B005JPPMS6
Joined June 2012

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    1. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 20 Feb 2020

      ok, just got 50% of my retirement account out of S&P500 index leaving it as cash while I ponder

      18 replies 0 retweets 51 likes
      Show this thread
    2. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 20 Feb 2020

      2/ <laces running shoes> I don't have to be faster than you, I just have to be faster than the bears.

      5 replies 0 retweets 23 likes
      Show this thread
    3. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 20 Feb 2020

      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted vector (fish angel)

      3/ To back up a bit, you can bet on an individual stock, or the market as a whole, at any degree of leverage (multiplier) from, say, -10 to +10. To get +10 you borrow money and buy stocks. To get +1 you buy stocks. To get 0, you stay in cash >>>https://twitter.com/BonbonFork/status/1230600252157243393 …

      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs added,

      vector (fish angel) @VectorOfBasis
      Replying to @MorlockP
      So the idea is that markets could go down a lot and money kept in retirement account would get devalued? But you don't know what will happen so don't want to loose interest on all money if everything goes okay (i.e. not catastrophic disruption after Corona) ?
      2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
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    4. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 20 Feb 2020

      To get -1, you short a stock. To get -N, you borrow money and ... So anyway, I had $X in index funds. i.e. my bet was 1x re the market. I'm still bullish long term, but concerned short term. So I went from 1x to 0.5x.

      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
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    5. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 20 Feb 2020

      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted Jack Rabbit

      5/ meh I am generally not convinced by arguments of the form "I say do X".https://twitter.com/somecaveman/status/1230600710078644225 …

      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs added,

      Jack Rabbit @somecaveman
      Replying to @MorlockP
      Put an amount you can afford to loose into bitcoin and hold for ten years
      1 reply 0 retweets 15 likes
      Show this thread
    6. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 20 Feb 2020

      6/ @ByrneHobart makes a much more compelling argument for doing EXACTLY THAT by talking about "camel distributions".

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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    7. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 20 Feb 2020

      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted tom hynes

      7/ There have certainly been a few periods where the multi-decade compounded return on the market have been < 0, clustering around the Great Depression. But I'm not getting out of the market, nor am I staying out for very long. Just reducing exposurehttps://twitter.com/tom_hynes/status/1230602133331828736 …

      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs added,

      tom hynes @tom_hynes
      Replying to @MorlockP
      I am guessing you are about 40. Goal of retirement is to die before your money runs out, call it 90, or you have 50 year horizon. Over what 50 year period has it been better to be in cash than SP500, after inflation and dividends? What is longest period cash > SP500?
      3 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
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    8. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 20 Feb 2020

      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted LCDR Fish Loves Flicks

      8/ I don't understand any part of this.https://twitter.com/FishLikesFlicks/status/1230604476601524224 …

      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs added,

      LCDR Fish Loves Flicks @FishLikesFlicks
      Replying to @MorlockP
      Index funds are indices for a reason. Seems like it would be more prudent to leave it there and sell any individual stocks you have. Also...if it's a formal IRA, I'm guessing you'll take a tax hit too.
      4 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
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    9. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 20 Feb 2020

      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted vector (fish angel)

      9/ If you can pay your mortgage off entirely, do that. If you can't, make an emergency fund of as many months of mortgage payments as you can, and keep it liquid (a checking account).https://twitter.com/BonbonFork/status/1230609191456382976 …

      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs added,

      vector (fish angel) @VectorOfBasis
      Replying to @MorlockP
      Thanks a lot for the explanation! OK how do I reduce my tail risk if I have a mortgage? Dump everything I can to reduce my debt? Hmm I need to learn more about money, being a general nerd is not enough
      2 replies 0 retweets 14 likes
      Show this thread
      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 20 Feb 2020

      10/ Chance of being unemployed for 12 months is a lot lower than of being unemployed for 6 months. Chance of 6 is lower than chance of 3 months, etc. ...and you're almost guaranteed to be unemployed for 1 month at some point. decreasing marginal utility to emergency savings

      1:47 PM - 20 Feb 2020
      • 16 Likes
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      1 reply 0 retweets 16 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 20 Feb 2020

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted Tu quoque

          11/ Let's say that there's a Ford plant in Michigan which assembles cars. Computer dash unit comes from China. Ford has a 10 day supply on hand. China factory calls up says "expect no shipments for 60 days". Ford shuts down the assembly line.https://twitter.com/The_Hinton/status/1230626235837014017 …

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs added,

          Tu quoque @The_Hinton
          Replying to @MorlockP
          Can someone who know more about supply chains explain *what* to be worried about? Say if Korean and Japan are forced to go into big lockdown. What disappears from the shelves? For how long?
          3 replies 1 retweet 17 likes
          Show this thread
        3. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 20 Feb 2020

          12/ Just for 60 or 90 days or whatever. But as part of that, they furlough 10,000 workers (who no longer buy breakfast at the six Dunkies near the factory), and they stop buying seatbelts & seats & bumpers from other factories for 90 days. Those factories furlough another 5k

          2 replies 1 retweet 12 likes
          Show this thread
        4. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 20 Feb 2020

          13/ Ford calls up the Wall Street analysts and gives them "guidance" saying "our year over year profit was going to be +3%, but is now expected to be +1.5%".

          3 replies 0 retweets 13 likes
          Show this thread
        5. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 20 Feb 2020

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted vector (fish angel)

          14/ meh I generally agree with EMH ("efficient market hypothesis"). People much smarter than me, who are paid to study markets have already made their best guesses, and the current market prices reflect those good insights. >>>https://twitter.com/BonbonFork/status/1230634152417992705 …

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs added,

          vector (fish angel) @VectorOfBasis
          Replying to @MorlockP @ByrneHobart
          Do we should expect a general market crash? Any guess how severe? 2008-level? And it's US election year, right? Interesting.
          2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
          Show this thread
        6. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 20 Feb 2020

          15/ so if I disagree with the consensus market wisdom, it's some combination of * my unique knowledge and skills (very very little, negative, actually) * my distinct utility function * me giving into psychological quirks and worries so: 2 and 3 I'm moving some money to cash >

          2 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
          Show this thread
        7. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 20 Feb 2020

          16/ ...largely to quiet the itch (inner neurotic screaming), and to head off the potential of regret. It's half a real move, half a symbolic move. I only started saving for retirement after I paid off the farm 1.5 years ago, so not much in there (thus symbolism).

          3 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
          Show this thread
        8. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 20 Feb 2020

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted

          17/ Paper cash is good for liquidity when credit cards etc are down. I don't remotely see any problems like that bc of Coronavirus. Winter ice storms, tho? Yes. Sure, tuck $100 away to buy milk and hamburger. https://twitter.com/ZeroBolusZero/status/1230635437254823937 …

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs added,

          This Tweet is unavailable.
          3 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
          Show this thread
        9. End of conversation

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