ok, just got 50% of my retirement account out of S&P500 index leaving it as cash while I ponder
-
-
9/ If you can pay your mortgage off entirely, do that. If you can't, make an emergency fund of as many months of mortgage payments as you can, and keep it liquid (a checking account).https://twitter.com/BonbonFork/status/1230609191456382976 …
Show this thread -
10/ Chance of being unemployed for 12 months is a lot lower than of being unemployed for 6 months. Chance of 6 is lower than chance of 3 months, etc. ...and you're almost guaranteed to be unemployed for 1 month at some point. decreasing marginal utility to emergency savings
Show this thread -
11/ Let's say that there's a Ford plant in Michigan which assembles cars. Computer dash unit comes from China. Ford has a 10 day supply on hand. China factory calls up says "expect no shipments for 60 days". Ford shuts down the assembly line.https://twitter.com/The_Hinton/status/1230626235837014017 …
Show this thread -
12/ Just for 60 or 90 days or whatever. But as part of that, they furlough 10,000 workers (who no longer buy breakfast at the six Dunkies near the factory), and they stop buying seatbelts & seats & bumpers from other factories for 90 days. Those factories furlough another 5k
Show this thread -
13/ Ford calls up the Wall Street analysts and gives them "guidance" saying "our year over year profit was going to be +3%, but is now expected to be +1.5%".
Show this thread -
14/ meh I generally agree with EMH ("efficient market hypothesis"). People much smarter than me, who are paid to study markets have already made their best guesses, and the current market prices reflect those good insights. >>>https://twitter.com/BonbonFork/status/1230634152417992705 …
Show this thread -
15/ so if I disagree with the consensus market wisdom, it's some combination of * my unique knowledge and skills (very very little, negative, actually) * my distinct utility function * me giving into psychological quirks and worries so: 2 and 3 I'm moving some money to cash >
Show this thread -
16/ ...largely to quiet the itch (inner neurotic screaming), and to head off the potential of regret. It's half a real move, half a symbolic move. I only started saving for retirement after I paid off the farm 1.5 years ago, so not much in there (thus symbolism).
Show this thread -
17/ Paper cash is good for liquidity when credit cards etc are down. I don't remotely see any problems like that bc of Coronavirus. Winter ice storms, tho? Yes. Sure, tuck $100 away to buy milk and hamburger. https://twitter.com/ZeroBolusZero/status/1230635437254823937 …
This Tweet is unavailable.Show this thread
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
You get the most amazing unsolicited advice.
-
This is what happens when part of your brand is "so far along the spectrum you've redshifted"
- Show replies
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.