10/1
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Replying to @robinhanson @MorlockP
Against, sorry. Reasoning, death start piling up they'll smash through development barriers on vaccines. Plus we've no news on existing antivirals
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Replying to @thehandbehindt1 @MorlockP
So you might bet your $1000 against my $100, or your $100 against my $10?
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Replying to @robinhanson @MorlockP
If you bet 100 I'd give you 1100 if deaths =/> 10milliion
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Replying to @thehandbehindt1 @MorlockP
I'll accept that offer if it is still open, denominated in $ I presume. Happy to accept a CDC declared # for the total
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Worldwide?
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Yes, that's the idea.
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I'll give you 7-1 on your $100 that worldwide deaths as measured by CDC for deaths attributed to covid19 prior to 12/31/2021 midnight number less than 10million, payable when they make numbers through that date available or when they top 10million.
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I respect your making the offer, and I hope someone else here takes you up on it, but I've accepted 6 bets so far at 10-1 odds, & 7-1 would be worse for me than those.
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which suggests, @robinhanson , that either you think the odds are better than 10:1 but worse than 7:1 ... OR that you think 7:1 could be profitable, but hope to pick up more bets at 10:1, and don't want to move the market!

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If there are enough seats at the 3:2 blackjack, then no reason to sit at the 6:5 table.
0 replies 0 retweets 2 likesThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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