58/ prepping for suburban soccer moms, a thread --> (I endorse all of this) https://twitter.com/unorthodoxxxy/status/1228424265252212738 …
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59/ Pessimistic thoughts: R0 could be 11 Mortality rate could be 10%https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/14/wuhan-coronavirus-wuwt-update/ …
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60/ Good blog post from
@shylockh https://shylockholmes.blogspot.com/2020/02/the-covid19-death-rate-is-much-higher.html …3 replies 0 retweets 10 likesShow this thread -
61/ Interesting blog post on why the CFR (case fatality rate, i.e. fatality rate) of COVID-19 may be a lot higher than 2%. http://avatorl.org/en/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-fatality-rate-who-and-media-vs-reality/ …
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62/ My bet remains that (a) it ** IS ** a lot higher than 2% ... in China (b) it will be around 2% in the west
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ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted vector (fish angel)
ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs added,
vector (fish angel) @VectorOfBasisReplying to @MorlockPFrom Imperial College London's MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis has released Report 5: Phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 "epidemic doubling time of approximately seven days" https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College---COVID-19---genetic-analysis-FINAL.pdf … pic.twitter.com/aVKEH1gGDw2 replies 1 retweet 4 likesShow this thread -
64/ I had a question from
@s_r_constantin a few days ago - more or less "when should a city dweller bug out / bug in ?". I've been pondering this a lot. I don't have a good answer. It depends on a few things:1 reply 0 retweets 4 likesShow this thread -
65/ * inevitability of contracting it (if we're all getting it eventually, why bother?) * reinfection possibility (getting it once = immunity scenarios differ from waves-of-disease scenario) * ability to shelter in place
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66/ * alternative locations - does your uncle have a country place that used to be a farm before the motor law? * ability to work remotely / live off of savings * tolerance for f2f social isolation * likelihood of vaccine being developed in 6 / 12 / 36 months
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Replying to @MorlockP
Was playing this out the other night- and everyone that had holdings are long dead, and their children feasted on the seedcorn. Pessimistic, but maybe an RV. the serious worry is 75+ yr old Mamalady. Dunno how that'd go, and I live there, so. Wargaming is hard, close to the edge.
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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