45/ One scenario is "like 1918 - society is still running, but you PREFER to minimize trips to the supermarket, etc." So stock up on staples you already like to eat - beans, pastas, frozen meats, etc. Find a spare closet in your apartment and fill it with a few walmart orders
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58/ prepping for suburban soccer moms, a thread --> (I endorse all of this) https://twitter.com/unorthodoxxxy/status/1228424265252212738 …
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59/ Pessimistic thoughts: R0 could be 11 Mortality rate could be 10%https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/14/wuhan-coronavirus-wuwt-update/ …
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60/ Good blog post from
@shylockh https://shylockholmes.blogspot.com/2020/02/the-covid19-death-rate-is-much-higher.html …Show this thread -
61/ Interesting blog post on why the CFR (case fatality rate, i.e. fatality rate) of COVID-19 may be a lot higher than 2%. http://avatorl.org/en/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-fatality-rate-who-and-media-vs-reality/ …
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62/ My bet remains that (a) it ** IS ** a lot higher than 2% ... in China (b) it will be around 2% in the west
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64/ I had a question from
@s_r_constantin a few days ago - more or less "when should a city dweller bug out / bug in ?". I've been pondering this a lot. I don't have a good answer. It depends on a few things:Show this thread -
65/ * inevitability of contracting it (if we're all getting it eventually, why bother?) * reinfection possibility (getting it once = immunity scenarios differ from waves-of-disease scenario) * ability to shelter in place
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66/ * alternative locations - does your uncle have a country place that used to be a farm before the motor law? * ability to work remotely / live off of savings * tolerance for f2f social isolation * likelihood of vaccine being developed in 6 / 12 / 36 months
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67/ Some of these parameters differ from person to person, and I don't know your dial settings. Others are known unknowns. There are unknown unknowns that - definitionally - I haven't even listed.
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68/ The one think I'm relatively confident about is that choosing the time to bug out / turtle in is going to be very hard to nail down precisely, because it's going to be - in retrospect - about 2-3 weeks before you realize it's time. REEEEEEE
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72/ On a tangent: I'd love to be a fly on the wall inside Amazon boardroom. I guarantee you that they see both threat and potential in this. As people shun human contact during the pandemic, they're well positioned. I'll bet big money that they're developing plans for >>>
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73/ decontamination protocols inside their warehouses and for their delivery trucks, stockpiling respirators for delivery staff, etc etc etc Giving strong consideration to buying Amazon stock right now, even at the insane P/E
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74/ DM from
@gaitanalyst The one thing I would kinda universalize: parents of small kids would be well advised to have a plan for getting their kids out of preschool. I’ve already called all my siblings about this. Preschool or day care >>>Show this thread -
75/ ...Respiratory viruses are more lethal under 4 and wayyyyy more lethal under <END RT>
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82/ I've been saying this a lot. Right now, masks are hard to get, but bleach, ozone generating machines, pallets of peanut butter / pasta / canned sauces ... all of this stuff is available with free 2-day delivery from Walmart. Tomorrow, though? https://twitter.com/Scholars_Stage/status/1230893418940895234 …
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83/ COV19 panic is going to hit like bankruptcy: "slowly at first, and then all at once".
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84/ I saw a news article this morning along the lines of "CDC has declared Covid19 an XYZ, and bureaucratic rules say that that means that only FDA approved tests are official, and there are no FDA approved tests". So ... measurement errors, I suspect.https://twitter.com/Face_Almighty44/status/1230918475322970114 …
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