37/ A guess, based on death rates in China (see sources earlier in this thread), death rates from US flu, adjusting for our superior cleanliness and medical system, etc.https://twitter.com/BonbonFork/status/1228335864826224642 …
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48/ it's already starting. via
@relicn0cer https://twitter.com/ISCResearch/status/1226474163780583429 …This Tweet is unavailable.Show this thread -
50/ 1.5% death rate in < 60 5.3% death rate > 60 divide by 2 or 5 or 10 or whatever for western countries because cleaner air, less smoking, better health care https://twitter.com/Fred_Watson_II/status/1228314798053613575 …
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54/ Also, time to re-read
@slatestarcodex's "Thrive vs Survive" essay. If the pandemic hits the US hard, I expect to see a strong turn away from SJW-ism and internationalism, and towards America-first nationalism.https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/03/04/a-thrivesurvive-theory-of-the-political-spectrum/ …Show this thread -
55/ Might as well read the not-great-but-solid John Ringo novel "Centurion". > In the second decade of the twenty-first century the world is struck by ... a plague to dwarf all previous experiences.
https://www.amazon.com/Last-Centurion-John-Ringo/dp/1439132917 …Show this thread -
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58/ prepping for suburban soccer moms, a thread --> (I endorse all of this) https://twitter.com/unorthodoxxxy/status/1228424265252212738 …
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59/ Pessimistic thoughts: R0 could be 11 Mortality rate could be 10%https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/14/wuhan-coronavirus-wuwt-update/ …
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60/ Good blog post from
@shylockh https://shylockholmes.blogspot.com/2020/02/the-covid19-death-rate-is-much-higher.html …Show this thread -
61/ Interesting blog post on why the CFR (case fatality rate, i.e. fatality rate) of COVID-19 may be a lot higher than 2%. http://avatorl.org/en/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-fatality-rate-who-and-media-vs-reality/ …
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62/ My bet remains that (a) it ** IS ** a lot higher than 2% ... in China (b) it will be around 2% in the west
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64/ I had a question from
@s_r_constantin a few days ago - more or less "when should a city dweller bug out / bug in ?". I've been pondering this a lot. I don't have a good answer. It depends on a few things:Show this thread -
65/ * inevitability of contracting it (if we're all getting it eventually, why bother?) * reinfection possibility (getting it once = immunity scenarios differ from waves-of-disease scenario) * ability to shelter in place
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66/ * alternative locations - does your uncle have a country place that used to be a farm before the motor law? * ability to work remotely / live off of savings * tolerance for f2f social isolation * likelihood of vaccine being developed in 6 / 12 / 36 months
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67/ Some of these parameters differ from person to person, and I don't know your dial settings. Others are known unknowns. There are unknown unknowns that - definitionally - I haven't even listed.
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68/ The one think I'm relatively confident about is that choosing the time to bug out / turtle in is going to be very hard to nail down precisely, because it's going to be - in retrospect - about 2-3 weeks before you realize it's time. REEEEEEE
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72/ On a tangent: I'd love to be a fly on the wall inside Amazon boardroom. I guarantee you that they see both threat and potential in this. As people shun human contact during the pandemic, they're well positioned. I'll bet big money that they're developing plans for >>>
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73/ decontamination protocols inside their warehouses and for their delivery trucks, stockpiling respirators for delivery staff, etc etc etc Giving strong consideration to buying Amazon stock right now, even at the insane P/E
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74/ DM from
@gaitanalyst The one thing I would kinda universalize: parents of small kids would be well advised to have a plan for getting their kids out of preschool. I’ve already called all my siblings about this. Preschool or day care >>>Show this thread -
75/ ...Respiratory viruses are more lethal under 4 and wayyyyy more lethal under <END RT>
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