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MorlockP's profile
ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs
ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs
ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs
@MorlockP

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ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs

@MorlockP

Two-time Prometheus award-winning hard science fiction author. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B005JPPMS6  Learn how to homestead https://www.amazon.com/dp/B093BC3K1T 

Aristillus Crater, Luna
amazon.com/dp/B005JPPMS6
Joined June 2012

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    1. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

      32/ US doubling every 7 days, vaccine 18 months out, means EVERYONE gets it. 2% death rate (my guess for US) = 6M US deaths US doubling ever 14 days, vaccine 18 months out, means 3M people get it. 2% death rate = 60k deaths (i.e. 20 days worth of car accidents)

      5 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
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    2. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

      33/ so, if r0 and death rate are fixed, then we hope for a slow rate of spread. 14 days doubling time means we barely notice it. 7 days doubling time means people you know die.

      1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
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    3. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted

      34/ Guys, the time to prep is now. Once the normies start to panic, it gets harder. https://twitter.com/TacticalMinivan/status/1228333751027060736 …

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    4. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

      35/ Prepping does not have to be either (a) expensive, (b) weird, (c) hard. Go to http://walmart.com , buy a bunch of rice, pasta, and peanut butter, and get free delivery. Do you have $200 ? Of course you do. Everyone does.

      5 replies 3 retweets 23 likes
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    5. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

      36/ 8 lbs of spaghetti ~ $8 https://www.walmart.com/ip/Barilla-Blue-Box-Pasta-Penne-Spaghetti-Variety-Pack-16-oz-Pack-of-8/130874598 … 20 lbs of rice - $12 https://www.walmart.com/ip/Great-Value-Long-Grain-Enriched-Rice-20-lb/10315883 … 4 lbs of peanut butter - $4 https://www.walmart.com/ip/Great-Value-Creamy-Peanut-Butter-64-oz/47375932 … Free delivery for > $100, IIRC. Un 3 days its all on your front porch you haul it down to a shelf in your basement.

      6 replies 2 retweets 23 likes
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    6. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted vector (fish angel)

      37/ A guess, based on death rates in China (see sources earlier in this thread), death rates from US flu, adjusting for our superior cleanliness and medical system, etc.https://twitter.com/BonbonFork/status/1228335864826224642 …

      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs added,

      vector (fish angel) @VectorOfBasis
      Replying to @MorlockP @SaucercrabZero
      How did you get this death-rate estimate? There are probably two situations: a) normally functioning health-care system, b) health-care system under strain. In a) you get all the cheap stuff you need. In b) you don't get the cheap stuff because there's none left.
      1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
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    7. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted Not Bill Clinton (I Feel/Your Pain)

      38/ Painful in the short term, but my ideology is not pure-Reason-dot-com-homo-economicus. I think that US must retain global hegemony and also push back on outsourcing to PRC to help Americans (for purposes domestic harmony - give poors jobs).https://twitter.com/notPotus42/status/1228336324446445569 …

      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs added,

      Not Bill Clinton (I Feel/Your Pain) @notPotus42
      Replying to @MorlockP @SaucercrabZero
      I’m more worried about the dislocation due to China effectively shutting down for several months to a year. They are a Big Part of the supply chain, as well as a semi-large market. Shortages and an economic shock are somewhat likely. Which means get ready for President Bernie.
      2 replies 1 retweet 19 likes
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    8. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

      39/ ...and thus, while it would be far far better to not have a pandemic, there are some minor upsides to the economic dislocations (and resulting adaptations) that will result.

      1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
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    9. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted Lawyer Dog

      40/ Agree with @TheClarksTale ! I'm not discussing all of this as "OMG, this is definitely going to happen". I'm discussing what is PLAUSIBLE. I've discussed kitchen grease fires with wife, and purchased fire extinguishers. I'm not BETTING on a fire.https://twitter.com/TheClarksTale/status/1228337330831806464 …

      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs added,

      Lawyer Dog @TheClarksTale
      I think this thread errs mildly on the side of alarmism for various reasons, but the basic analysis and suggestions are sound. If you aren't prepared to hunker down for a couple months, get prepared. And if things go sideways they will do so faster than you think. https://twitter.com/MorlockP/status/1228086074871865345 …
      3 replies 1 retweet 25 likes
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    10. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted Lawyer Dog

      41/ One way to think about odds is to look at events over past periods. Depending on how you define the data set, we've had one or two bad pandemics (Spanish Flue, HIV) in the last centuryhttps://twitter.com/TheClarksTale/status/1228339055340900353 …

      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs added,

      Lawyer Dog @TheClarksTale
      Replying to @MorlockP @SaucercrabZero
      I think the odds of a seriously bad outcome are lower than your 1-in-30, partly because of dynamic factors (the worse things look, the stronger the preventive measures imposed, etc.) - but the dynamic factors can go both ways. Anyway, I live in earthquake country, so prepping 👍.
      1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
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      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

      42/ so we've got a base expectation of maybe 1 plague every 50 years However... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics#20th_century …

      7:31 AM - 14 Feb 2020
      • 6 Likes
      • Dr. Rupert, Z Warrior, Toddler Wrangler 🇷🇺 JDangerously Alea Iacta Est Àdhamh Cynebeald Frank Vance vector (fish angel)
      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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        2. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

          43/pic.twitter.com/Y5PmIH2NGs

          2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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        3. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted ifrit

          44/ Can't dive into this because I need to work, but the way I think about everything is 1) define the scenario 2) the make a list from thathttps://twitter.com/metadiogenes/status/1228340963376091136 …

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs added,

          ifrit @metadiogenes
          Replying to @MorlockP @SaucercrabZero
          Yeah, I think I need to start treating this seriously. Unfortunately I'm in a major city so am probably fucked. Any advice? What are the best basic bitch essentials to focus on re: food, etc? Should I just be buying a huge sack of rice, canned beans and meat, frozen veggies?
          1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
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        4. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

          45/ One scenario is "like 1918 - society is still running, but you PREFER to minimize trips to the supermarket, etc." So stock up on staples you already like to eat - beans, pastas, frozen meats, etc. Find a spare closet in your apartment and fill it with a few walmart orders

          1 reply 0 retweets 15 likes
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        5. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

          46/ "Go outside half or 1/4 as often" seems like a plausible plan for a city dweller.

          1 reply 0 retweets 17 likes
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        6. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted Kenneth St Cyr

          47/ The first guy to prep gets to pick anything he wants. The last 50% of the people who want to prep see this when they go shopping:https://twitter.com/Kenneth_St_Cyr/status/1228342520859496448 …

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs added,

          Kenneth St Cyr @Kenneth_St_Cyr
          Replying to @MorlockP @SaucercrabZero
          Yep..seen it in Florida before Irma. Photos of Publix before the storm. pic.twitter.com/vnObdHQfIy
          5 replies 1 retweet 23 likes
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        7. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted

          48/ it's already starting. via @relicn0cer https://twitter.com/ISCResearch/status/1226474163780583429 …

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs added,

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        8. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted Alexander Kruel

          49/https://twitter.com/XiXiDu/status/1228349598160302080 …

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs added,

          Alexander Kruel @XiXiDu
          Replying to @robinhanson @MorlockP
          Saw a press conference with the top German experts yesterday and they unanimously said that a vaccine won't be ready before 2021.
          2 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
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        9. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted

          50/ 1.5% death rate in < 60 5.3% death rate > 60 divide by 2 or 5 or 10 or whatever for western countries because cleaner air, less smoking, better health care https://twitter.com/Fred_Watson_II/status/1228314798053613575 …

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        10. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted Michael C. Bender

          51/https://twitter.com/MichaelCBender/status/1228335868202672129 …

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs added,

          Michael C. BenderVerified account @MichaelCBender
          Harvard public heath prof Mac Lipsitch, on coronavirus: “It is likely we’ll see a global pandemic...If a pandemic happens, 40% to 70% of people world-wide are likely to be infected in the coming year.” https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-many-people-might-one-person-with-coronavirus-infect-11581676200 …
          1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
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        11. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted

          52/ https://twitter.com/Scholars_Stage/status/1228362910185000960 …

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        12. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted

          53/ https://twitter.com/Scholars_Stage/status/1228362912403795973 …

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        13. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

          54/ Also, time to re-read @slatestarcodex's "Thrive vs Survive" essay. If the pandemic hits the US hard, I expect to see a strong turn away from SJW-ism and internationalism, and towards America-first nationalism.https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/03/04/a-thrivesurvive-theory-of-the-political-spectrum/ …

          2 replies 2 retweets 20 likes
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        14. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

          55/ Might as well read the not-great-but-solid John Ringo novel "Centurion". > In the second decade of the twenty-first century the world is struck by ... a plague to dwarf all previous experiences. 🤔https://www.amazon.com/Last-Centurion-John-Ringo/dp/1439132917 …

          2 replies 4 retweets 17 likes
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        15. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted

          56/ https://twitter.com/daxidor/status/1228393487734689792 …

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        16. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted

          57/ https://twitter.com/daxidor/status/1228393888609525760 …

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          4 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
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        17. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted

          58/ prepping for suburban soccer moms, a thread --> (I endorse all of this) https://twitter.com/unorthodoxxxy/status/1228424265252212738 …

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        18. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 14 Feb 2020

          59/ Pessimistic thoughts: R0 could be 11 Mortality rate could be 10%https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/14/wuhan-coronavirus-wuwt-update/ …

          6 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
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        19. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 15 Feb 2020

          60/ Good blog post from @shylockh https://shylockholmes.blogspot.com/2020/02/the-covid19-death-rate-is-much-higher.html …

          3 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
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        20. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 17 Feb 2020

          61/ Interesting blog post on why the CFR (case fatality rate, i.e. fatality rate) of COVID-19 may be a lot higher than 2%. http://avatorl.org/en/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-fatality-rate-who-and-media-vs-reality/ …

          1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
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        21. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 17 Feb 2020

          62/ My bet remains that (a) it ** IS ** a lot higher than 2% ... in China (b) it will be around 2% in the west

          2 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
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        22. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 20 Feb 2020

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted vector (fish angel)

          63/https://twitter.com/BonbonFork/status/1230484970168344576 …

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs added,

          vector (fish angel) @VectorOfBasis
          Replying to @MorlockP
          From Imperial College London's MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis has released Report 5: Phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 "epidemic doubling time of approximately seven days" https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College---COVID-19---genetic-analysis-FINAL.pdf … pic.twitter.com/aVKEH1gGDw
          2 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
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        23. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 20 Feb 2020

          64/ I had a question from @s_r_constantin a few days ago - more or less "when should a city dweller bug out / bug in ?". I've been pondering this a lot. I don't have a good answer. It depends on a few things:

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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        24. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 20 Feb 2020

          65/ * inevitability of contracting it (if we're all getting it eventually, why bother?) * reinfection possibility (getting it once = immunity scenarios differ from waves-of-disease scenario) * ability to shelter in place

          2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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        25. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 20 Feb 2020

          66/ * alternative locations - does your uncle have a country place that used to be a farm before the motor law? * ability to work remotely / live off of savings * tolerance for f2f social isolation * likelihood of vaccine being developed in 6 / 12 / 36 months

          3 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
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        26. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 20 Feb 2020

          67/ Some of these parameters differ from person to person, and I don't know your dial settings. Others are known unknowns. There are unknown unknowns that - definitionally - I haven't even listed.

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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        27. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 20 Feb 2020

          68/ The one think I'm relatively confident about is that choosing the time to bug out / turtle in is going to be very hard to nail down precisely, because it's going to be - in retrospect - about 2-3 weeks before you realize it's time. REEEEEEE

          1 reply 0 retweets 21 likes
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        28. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 20 Feb 2020

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted vector (fish angel)

          69/https://twitter.com/BonbonFork/status/1230483325359443970 …

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs added,

          vector (fish angel) @VectorOfBasis
          Metaculus: median prediction of number of #coronavirus infected before 2021 is 3.01M today, a 23% increase from yesterday https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021-question-two/ … https://twitter.com/BonbonFork/status/1230181915669516288?s=20 … pic.twitter.com/sA2ZpFAoQ9
          2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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        29. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 20 Feb 2020

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted

          70/ yep https://twitter.com/enginoire1/status/1230488034753351681 …

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs added,

          This Tweet is unavailable.
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        30. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 20 Feb 2020

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted Señor Bob

          71/https://twitter.com/Bobthewelding1/status/1230488333974896640 …

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs added,

          Señor Bob @Bobthewelding1
          Replying to @MorlockP
          Surely there must be an out of work farmhand this time of year...
          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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        31. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 20 Feb 2020

          72/ On a tangent: I'd love to be a fly on the wall inside Amazon boardroom. I guarantee you that they see both threat and potential in this. As people shun human contact during the pandemic, they're well positioned. I'll bet big money that they're developing plans for >>>

          1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
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