31/ I've seen assertions both ways. No opinions yet.https://twitter.com/CornChowder76/status/1228330227656511489 …
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42/ so we've got a base expectation of maybe 1 plague every 50 years However... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics#20th_century …
44/ Can't dive into this because I need to work, but the way I think about everything is 1) define the scenario 2) the make a list from thathttps://twitter.com/metadiogenes/status/1228340963376091136 …
45/ One scenario is "like 1918 - society is still running, but you PREFER to minimize trips to the supermarket, etc." So stock up on staples you already like to eat - beans, pastas, frozen meats, etc. Find a spare closet in your apartment and fill it with a few walmart orders
46/ "Go outside half or 1/4 as often" seems like a plausible plan for a city dweller.
47/ The first guy to prep gets to pick anything he wants. The last 50% of the people who want to prep see this when they go shopping:https://twitter.com/Kenneth_St_Cyr/status/1228342520859496448 …
48/
it's already starting.
via @relicn0cer
https://twitter.com/ISCResearch/status/1226474163780583429 …
50/ 1.5% death rate in < 60 5.3% death rate > 60 divide by 2 or 5 or 10 or whatever for western countries because cleaner air, less smoking, better health care https://twitter.com/Fred_Watson_II/status/1228314798053613575 …
54/
Also, time to re-read @slatestarcodex's "Thrive vs Survive" essay.
If the pandemic hits the US hard, I expect to see a strong turn away from SJW-ism and internationalism, and towards America-first nationalism.https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/03/04/a-thrivesurvive-theory-of-the-political-spectrum/ …
55/
Might as well read the not-great-but-solid John Ringo novel "Centurion".
> In the second decade of the twenty-first century the world is struck by ... a plague to dwarf all previous experiences.
https://www.amazon.com/Last-Centurion-John-Ringo/dp/1439132917 …
58/ prepping for suburban soccer moms, a thread --> (I endorse all of this) https://twitter.com/unorthodoxxxy/status/1228424265252212738 …
59/ Pessimistic thoughts: R0 could be 11 Mortality rate could be 10%https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/14/wuhan-coronavirus-wuwt-update/ …
60/
Good blog post from @shylockh
https://shylockholmes.blogspot.com/2020/02/the-covid19-death-rate-is-much-higher.html …
61/ Interesting blog post on why the CFR (case fatality rate, i.e. fatality rate) of COVID-19 may be a lot higher than 2%. http://avatorl.org/en/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-fatality-rate-who-and-media-vs-reality/ …
62/ My bet remains that (a) it ** IS ** a lot higher than 2% ... in China (b) it will be around 2% in the west
64/
I had a question from @s_r_constantin a few days ago - more or less "when should a city dweller bug out / bug in ?".
I've been pondering this a lot.
I don't have a good answer.
It depends on a few things:
65/ * inevitability of contracting it (if we're all getting it eventually, why bother?) * reinfection possibility (getting it once = immunity scenarios differ from waves-of-disease scenario) * ability to shelter in place
66/ * alternative locations - does your uncle have a country place that used to be a farm before the motor law? * ability to work remotely / live off of savings * tolerance for f2f social isolation * likelihood of vaccine being developed in 6 / 12 / 36 months
67/ Some of these parameters differ from person to person, and I don't know your dial settings. Others are known unknowns. There are unknown unknowns that - definitionally - I haven't even listed.
68/ The one think I'm relatively confident about is that choosing the time to bug out / turtle in is going to be very hard to nail down precisely, because it's going to be - in retrospect - about 2-3 weeks before you realize it's time. REEEEEEE
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