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39/ ...and thus, while it would be far far better to not have a pandemic, there are some minor upsides to the economic dislocations (and resulting adaptations) that will result.
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40/ Agree with
@TheClarksTale ! I'm not discussing all of this as "OMG, this is definitely going to happen". I'm discussing what is PLAUSIBLE. I've discussed kitchen grease fires with wife, and purchased fire extinguishers. I'm not BETTING on a fire.https://twitter.com/TheClarksTale/status/1228337330831806464 …Show this thread -
41/ One way to think about odds is to look at events over past periods. Depending on how you define the data set, we've had one or two bad pandemics (Spanish Flue, HIV) in the last centuryhttps://twitter.com/TheClarksTale/status/1228339055340900353 …
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42/ so we've got a base expectation of maybe 1 plague every 50 years However... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics#20th_century …
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44/ Can't dive into this because I need to work, but the way I think about everything is 1) define the scenario 2) the make a list from thathttps://twitter.com/metadiogenes/status/1228340963376091136 …
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45/ One scenario is "like 1918 - society is still running, but you PREFER to minimize trips to the supermarket, etc." So stock up on staples you already like to eat - beans, pastas, frozen meats, etc. Find a spare closet in your apartment and fill it with a few walmart orders
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46/ "Go outside half or 1/4 as often" seems like a plausible plan for a city dweller.
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47/ The first guy to prep gets to pick anything he wants. The last 50% of the people who want to prep see this when they go shopping:https://twitter.com/Kenneth_St_Cyr/status/1228342520859496448 …
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48/ it's already starting. via
@relicn0cer https://twitter.com/ISCResearch/status/1226474163780583429 …This Tweet is unavailable.Show this thread -
50/ 1.5% death rate in < 60 5.3% death rate > 60 divide by 2 or 5 or 10 or whatever for western countries because cleaner air, less smoking, better health care https://twitter.com/Fred_Watson_II/status/1228314798053613575 …
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54/ Also, time to re-read
@slatestarcodex's "Thrive vs Survive" essay. If the pandemic hits the US hard, I expect to see a strong turn away from SJW-ism and internationalism, and towards America-first nationalism.https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/03/04/a-thrivesurvive-theory-of-the-political-spectrum/ …Show this thread -
55/ Might as well read the not-great-but-solid John Ringo novel "Centurion". > In the second decade of the twenty-first century the world is struck by ... a plague to dwarf all previous experiences.
https://www.amazon.com/Last-Centurion-John-Ringo/dp/1439132917 …Show this thread -
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58/ prepping for suburban soccer moms, a thread --> (I endorse all of this) https://twitter.com/unorthodoxxxy/status/1228424265252212738 …
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59/ Pessimistic thoughts: R0 could be 11 Mortality rate could be 10%https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/14/wuhan-coronavirus-wuwt-update/ …
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60/ Good blog post from
@shylockh https://shylockholmes.blogspot.com/2020/02/the-covid19-death-rate-is-much-higher.html …Show this thread -
61/ Interesting blog post on why the CFR (case fatality rate, i.e. fatality rate) of COVID-19 may be a lot higher than 2%. http://avatorl.org/en/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-fatality-rate-who-and-media-vs-reality/ …
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62/ My bet remains that (a) it ** IS ** a lot higher than 2% ... in China (b) it will be around 2% in the west
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64/ I had a question from
@s_r_constantin a few days ago - more or less "when should a city dweller bug out / bug in ?". I've been pondering this a lot. I don't have a good answer. It depends on a few things:Show this thread -
65/ * inevitability of contracting it (if we're all getting it eventually, why bother?) * reinfection possibility (getting it once = immunity scenarios differ from waves-of-disease scenario) * ability to shelter in place
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66/ * alternative locations - does your uncle have a country place that used to be a farm before the motor law? * ability to work remotely / live off of savings * tolerance for f2f social isolation * likelihood of vaccine being developed in 6 / 12 / 36 months
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67/ Some of these parameters differ from person to person, and I don't know your dial settings. Others are known unknowns. There are unknown unknowns that - definitionally - I haven't even listed.
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68/ The one think I'm relatively confident about is that choosing the time to bug out / turtle in is going to be very hard to nail down precisely, because it's going to be - in retrospect - about 2-3 weeks before you realize it's time. REEEEEEE
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