18/ I have. If there's a PARTICULAR arxiv cite you want to reference, feel free.https://twitter.com/lumiferrous/status/1228098764889522181 …
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ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted The Lady Emeth
19/ I'm not EXCITED by it, dude. I'd far rather not have a pandemic. And, and far as relevance, I'm quite happy with my no-pandemic life of living on a farm, writing code, and writing novels.https://twitter.com/PDGumshoe/status/1228130112589062144?s=19 …
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ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted turbo 🇺🇦
20/ Side thread on fragile systemshttps://twitter.com/tslaq9/status/1225919047566528512?s=19 …
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ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted
21/ Viruses do not evolve towards harmlessness https://twitter.com/browserdotsys/status/1228164137735163905?s=19 …
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23/ Note that we're compounding at 10% per day, day after day after day. In finance there's something called "the rule of 72". To very quickly estimate how long something takes to double, divide the number 72 by the percentage increase. 72/10 =~ 7
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24/ So based on this data, we can expect total coronavirus cases to double every 1 week. dcc 1000000000 64437 2 12 ^ * / p 12 weeks / 3 months from today we can expect 25% of the Chinese population to be infected, and ~6 million corpses
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25/ I'm going to assume that US has a low rate of increase - 5% per day, not 10%. That means our doubling time is 2 weeks, not 1 week. 12 weeks out we have 6 doublings 15 * 2^6 = ~750 cases I'm guessing that we see a vaccine in < 6 months. I don't think US is hit too hard
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26/ China, though?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8VRbaVNvSA&t=43m40s …
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Replying to @MorlockP
Did you actually watch that? I saw it either at the time or a year or two after. It was hard to follow for a however old I was. A bit slow for a Star Trek/Battlestar Galactica fan.
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yes, read the book in the 1970s, then watched the PBS movie in the early 1980s IIRC
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