12/ same URLpic.twitter.com/f4rVc6heI0
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23/ Note that we're compounding at 10% per day, day after day after day. In finance there's something called "the rule of 72". To very quickly estimate how long something takes to double, divide the number 72 by the percentage increase. 72/10 =~ 7
24/ So based on this data, we can expect total coronavirus cases to double every 1 week. dcc 1000000000 64437 2 12 ^ * / p 12 weeks / 3 months from today we can expect 25% of the Chinese population to be infected, and ~6 million corpses
25/ I'm going to assume that US has a low rate of increase - 5% per day, not 10%. That means our doubling time is 2 weeks, not 1 week. 12 weeks out we have 6 doublings 15 * 2^6 = ~750 cases I'm guessing that we see a vaccine in < 6 months. I don't think US is hit too hard
29/ I'm not BETTING on things going absolutely terrible, but reminder: the following is STILL ON THE TABLE * 200 M dead in China * 400 M dead in Africa * 10 M dead in US * 10 M dead in Europe I'd bet against this at, say, 20:1 or 30:1 ...but it's within the bellcurve, I think
30/
RT @SaucercrabZero
I am re-upping my position: Treat this seriously. As of now the Normies are still un-spooked in the US, so there's no panic. Don't panic. Just do your basic-bitch prepping, food, water, medicine, toiletries.
31/ I've seen assertions both ways. No opinions yet.https://twitter.com/CornChowder76/status/1228330227656511489 …
32/ US doubling every 7 days, vaccine 18 months out, means EVERYONE gets it. 2% death rate (my guess for US) = 6M US deaths US doubling ever 14 days, vaccine 18 months out, means 3M people get it. 2% death rate = 60k deaths (i.e. 20 days worth of car accidents)
33/ so, if r0 and death rate are fixed, then we hope for a slow rate of spread. 14 days doubling time means we barely notice it. 7 days doubling time means people you know die.
34/ Guys, the time to prep is now. Once the normies start to panic, it gets harder. https://twitter.com/TacticalMinivan/status/1228333751027060736 …
35/ Prepping does not have to be either (a) expensive, (b) weird, (c) hard. Go to http://walmart.com , buy a bunch of rice, pasta, and peanut butter, and get free delivery. Do you have $200 ? Of course you do. Everyone does.
36/ 8 lbs of spaghetti ~ $8 https://www.walmart.com/ip/Barilla-Blue-Box-Pasta-Penne-Spaghetti-Variety-Pack-16-oz-Pack-of-8/130874598 … 20 lbs of rice - $12 https://www.walmart.com/ip/Great-Value-Long-Grain-Enriched-Rice-20-lb/10315883 … 4 lbs of peanut butter - $4 https://www.walmart.com/ip/Great-Value-Creamy-Peanut-Butter-64-oz/47375932 … Free delivery for > $100, IIRC. Un 3 days its all on your front porch you haul it down to a shelf in your basement.
37/ A guess, based on death rates in China (see sources earlier in this thread), death rates from US flu, adjusting for our superior cleanliness and medical system, etc.https://twitter.com/BonbonFork/status/1228335864826224642 …
38/ Painful in the short term, but my ideology is not pure-Reason-dot-com-homo-economicus. I think that US must retain global hegemony and also push back on outsourcing to PRC to help Americans (for purposes domestic harmony - give poors jobs).https://twitter.com/notPotus42/status/1228336324446445569 …
39/ ...and thus, while it would be far far better to not have a pandemic, there are some minor upsides to the economic dislocations (and resulting adaptations) that will result.
40/
Agree with @TheClarksTale !
I'm not discussing all of this as "OMG, this is definitely going to happen". I'm discussing what is PLAUSIBLE.
I've discussed kitchen grease fires with wife, and purchased fire extinguishers.
I'm not BETTING on a fire.https://twitter.com/TheClarksTale/status/1228337330831806464 …
41/ One way to think about odds is to look at events over past periods. Depending on how you define the data set, we've had one or two bad pandemics (Spanish Flue, HIV) in the last centuryhttps://twitter.com/TheClarksTale/status/1228339055340900353 …
42/ so we've got a base expectation of maybe 1 plague every 50 years However... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics#20th_century …
44/ Can't dive into this because I need to work, but the way I think about everything is 1) define the scenario 2) the make a list from thathttps://twitter.com/metadiogenes/status/1228340963376091136 …
45/ One scenario is "like 1918 - society is still running, but you PREFER to minimize trips to the supermarket, etc." So stock up on staples you already like to eat - beans, pastas, frozen meats, etc. Find a spare closet in your apartment and fill it with a few walmart orders
46/ "Go outside half or 1/4 as often" seems like a plausible plan for a city dweller.
47/ The first guy to prep gets to pick anything he wants. The last 50% of the people who want to prep see this when they go shopping:https://twitter.com/Kenneth_St_Cyr/status/1228342520859496448 …
48/
it's already starting.
via @relicn0cer
https://twitter.com/ISCResearch/status/1226474163780583429 …
50/ 1.5% death rate in < 60 5.3% death rate > 60 divide by 2 or 5 or 10 or whatever for western countries because cleaner air, less smoking, better health care https://twitter.com/Fred_Watson_II/status/1228314798053613575 …
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