So it seems that
* efforts at containment of covid-19 have failed
* it's out of China and will soon be everywhere
* r0 may be at the higher end of the range: ~ 5 +
* lethality may be much higher than we hoped
so : feces hitting the fan, medium hard
>>>
#preppertalk
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6/ I've been RTing a lot of it, but let me dig up some detailshttps://twitter.com/willow_liana/status/1228089146083880960 …
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13/ R0 (the number of people that each carrier spreads it to) is perhaps in 4.7 - 6.6 range, which is full on "here comes the pandemic" territory.https://twitter.com/LokiJulianus/status/1227694087412813824 …
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14/ in line with these PolioFecal–oral route5–7 RubellaAirborne droplet5–7 MumpsAirborne droplet4–7 much much worse than SARS, HIV, etc. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number …
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16/ I have very low confidence in my thoughts. I ** KNOW ** that I don't know. Basically I'm looking for hedges in case stuff is bad, not PREDICTING that it is But...my best guess? * undeniable "outbreak" in US in < 6 weeks * r0 of 4-5 * lethality 2%https://twitter.com/lumiferrous/status/1228097526168944640 …
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17/ I think that with good air quality, low smoking rates, decent health level, good hospitals, rich country with good indoor heat, etc. that deaths will be very low except among the unhealthy / old.
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18/ I have. If there's a PARTICULAR arxiv cite you want to reference, feel free.https://twitter.com/lumiferrous/status/1228098764889522181 …
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19/ I'm not EXCITED by it, dude. I'd far rather not have a pandemic. And, and far as relevance, I'm quite happy with my no-pandemic life of living on a farm, writing code, and writing novels.https://twitter.com/PDGumshoe/status/1228130112589062144?s=19 …
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20/ Side thread on fragile systemshttps://twitter.com/tslaq9/status/1225919047566528512?s=19 …
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21/ Viruses do not evolve towards harmlessness https://twitter.com/browserdotsys/status/1228164137735163905?s=19 …
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23/ Note that we're compounding at 10% per day, day after day after day. In finance there's something called "the rule of 72". To very quickly estimate how long something takes to double, divide the number 72 by the percentage increase. 72/10 =~ 7
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24/ So based on this data, we can expect total coronavirus cases to double every 1 week. dcc 1000000000 64437 2 12 ^ * / p 12 weeks / 3 months from today we can expect 25% of the Chinese population to be infected, and ~6 million corpses
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25/ I'm going to assume that US has a low rate of increase - 5% per day, not 10%. That means our doubling time is 2 weeks, not 1 week. 12 weeks out we have 6 doublings 15 * 2^6 = ~750 cases I'm guessing that we see a vaccine in < 6 months. I don't think US is hit too hard
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29/ I'm not BETTING on things going absolutely terrible, but reminder: the following is STILL ON THE TABLE * 200 M dead in China * 400 M dead in Africa * 10 M dead in US * 10 M dead in Europe I'd bet against this at, say, 20:1 or 30:1 ...but it's within the bellcurve, I think
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30/ RT
@SaucercrabZero I am re-upping my position: Treat this seriously. As of now the Normies are still un-spooked in the US, so there's no panic. Don't panic. Just do your basic-bitch prepping, food, water, medicine, toiletries.Show this thread -
31/ I've seen assertions both ways. No opinions yet.https://twitter.com/CornChowder76/status/1228330227656511489 …
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32/ US doubling every 7 days, vaccine 18 months out, means EVERYONE gets it. 2% death rate (my guess for US) = 6M US deaths US doubling ever 14 days, vaccine 18 months out, means 3M people get it. 2% death rate = 60k deaths (i.e. 20 days worth of car accidents)
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33/ so, if r0 and death rate are fixed, then we hope for a slow rate of spread. 14 days doubling time means we barely notice it. 7 days doubling time means people you know die.
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34/ Guys, the time to prep is now. Once the normies start to panic, it gets harder. https://twitter.com/TacticalMinivan/status/1228333751027060736 …
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35/ Prepping does not have to be either (a) expensive, (b) weird, (c) hard. Go to http://walmart.com , buy a bunch of rice, pasta, and peanut butter, and get free delivery. Do you have $200 ? Of course you do. Everyone does.
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