953 votes give ave chance of 41% that #COVID19 will escape to infect large % of the world. Makes sense to me. The big uncertainty is its mortality rate in general population.https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1227619647375183872 …
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Robin Hanson Retweeted Robin Hanson
To be clear, my estimate is that it is already "game over" in terms of spreading wide.https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1227700677599625216 …
Robin Hanson added,
Robin HansonVerified account @robinhansonIt makes sense to try to isolate region where pandemic starts, in hope of preventing spread. But it seems#COVID19 has successful spread out of first region to many other regions. Seems much less feasible to keep from spreading out of China, once is all over China. Game is over. https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1227693885041729536 …Show this thread7 replies 4 retweets 17 likesShow this thread
Replying to @robinhanson
clearly ; I'd bet $1,000 on this
8:26 AM - 13 Feb 2020
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