2/ I know of three things that pattern match to CR: French Revolution, China's CR under Mao, and the current Great Awokening in the US and Western Europe. One theory is that CRs come from above (e.g. Mao's). Another is that they come from below (France? The US ?).
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3/ One friend (not at all red-tribe, so don't dismiss the following as pattern matching to Alex Jones) suggests that Soros has greatly increased the intensity of the American CR by funding and selectively helping small groups. So, top down.
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4/ Another friend has suggested that the crash of 2008, which cut off gainful employment for tons of kids graduating with liberal arts degrees, at the EXACT SAME TIME as the rise of high-metrics-online media channeled this cohort into a machine that rewarded them for outrage.
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5/ It's an interesting question, and one I want to understand, but don't fully yet. Another interesting question is how do CRs end ? The Chinese CR ended, officially, with Mao's fiat, but ended more fully after he died, under Deng Xiaoping.
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6/ The French CR ended ... how, exactly? With the success of the French Revolution? With the end of the First Republic? I don't know. I can generate three theories for endings: * the CR side wins completely and has nothing more to prove / no enemies yet to kill * CR loses
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7/ ...and finally: * CR runs out of enthusiasm / calories. Ooh, wait, a fourth one. There's one story, I maybe heard it from
@hradzka , about how one Mid Eastern terror brigade was dismantled: the leadership married off all of the young fighters, gave them stipends.3 replies 0 retweets 6 likesShow this thread -
ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted Robin Hanson
8/ I agree. Anyone else want to nominate other CRs? (However, one theory: perhaps CR can't exist without sufficient information technology. This dovetails with my theory that Hitler can't exist without radio and trains.)https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1223310206332882944 …
ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs added,
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ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted Lumifer
ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs added,
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10/ Anyway, I'd love to see a full science of CRs: * how they form * using that knowledge, how to prevent them * how they end * using that knowledge, how to end them earlier, with a lower body count
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On your 4th point you have 2 options. Either decapitation strikes or ironically, maximizing the body count. Make the CR too expensive to prosecute. I don't believe China and France style endstage CR's are even possible in the era of the modern insurgent.
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is this based on any historical data of such cases, or just wet dreaming of what might work?
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Just looking at the toolbox of a modern insurgent and comparing it to the documented behavior of past CR's. We haven't seen a end-stage CR since the VBIED became a common occurrence.
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