3/ I suspect that the political structure would - de factor or de jure - adapt to the challenge. When half of your population is dead, there's no time for OSHA or EPA to get in the way of keeping the lights on. If the regulatory environment is dampening US economy by ~ 30% now
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4/ I think that a lot of the reduction in output caused by pure death toll could be immediately compensated for with (de facto) de regulation.
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5/ I think we'd also see a collapse in the BS economy. As firms struggle to survive, and has the regulatory regime changes, HR / diversity / universities likely take a much bigger headcount hit that, say, manufacturing or transport.
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ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted North Korean Liberation Front
6/ yep, this is exactly where I was goinghttps://twitter.com/TheTriarii/status/1220378828989706241 …
ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs added,
North Korean Liberation Front @TheTriariiReplying to @MorlockPAlso, not to sound too detached when talking about tragedies, but workers' wages would probably rise. Saw it in the aftermath of the Black Death in Europe, and even saw it in the US colonies where the population was sparse for other reasons.5 replies 0 retweets 24 likesShow this thread -
7/ everyone talks about how capital is taking a bigger slice of the rewards pie now than labor, but a 50% death rate pandemic acts sort of like UBI / yang bucks / whatever, by making same capital chase after much rarer labor. Labor is scarce, returns go up.
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8/ but getting back to economic / technological collapse, if we lost ~ 40% of the population, I think we'd do OK. At that level, networks still heal, is my hunch. But at some level, maybe around there, certain types of tech get abandoned. We likely stop launching satellites.
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9/ Chip fabs, at least some of them, close. Chip fabs and software depend on economics of scale. Ship half as many units, and you can't run at a profit. Not all of them, tho. I think we'd stay in the 21st century. ...but maybe not advance processor or RAM tech for 50 years.
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10/ Software sector probably shrinks ... but maybe not? with labor scarce, perhaps returns to automation CLIMB ? Fewer coders working on websites, more on robots ?
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11/ This is all at some number - I'm saying 40% death rate, world wide. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe these effects are at 25-30%, and 40-50% is actually a whole new level / type of reaction Instead of falling back to ~ 2005 tech, maybe the next level causes us to fall back to 1960?
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Replying to @MorlockP
Can we keep the lights on with a death toll of 40%?
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Yes, that is what my thread is about
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