2/ for decades, if not a century, it didn't hurt the US economy at all. I suspect that because networks heal, things self organize, etc., that a death rate of up to 40 or 50% in the US would not push us over the edge into either civilizational or economic collapse.
-
Show this thread
-
3/ I suspect that the political structure would - de factor or de jure - adapt to the challenge. When half of your population is dead, there's no time for OSHA or EPA to get in the way of keeping the lights on. If the regulatory environment is dampening US economy by ~ 30% now
2 replies 0 retweets 17 likesShow this thread -
4/ I think that a lot of the reduction in output caused by pure death toll could be immediately compensated for with (de facto) de regulation.
3 replies 0 retweets 19 likesShow this thread -
5/ I think we'd also see a collapse in the BS economy. As firms struggle to survive, and has the regulatory regime changes, HR / diversity / universities likely take a much bigger headcount hit that, say, manufacturing or transport.
2 replies 0 retweets 24 likesShow this thread -
ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted North Korean Liberation Front
6/ yep, this is exactly where I was goinghttps://twitter.com/TheTriarii/status/1220378828989706241 …
ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs added,
North Korean Liberation Front @TheTriariiReplying to @MorlockPAlso, not to sound too detached when talking about tragedies, but workers' wages would probably rise. Saw it in the aftermath of the Black Death in Europe, and even saw it in the US colonies where the population was sparse for other reasons.5 replies 0 retweets 24 likesShow this thread -
7/ everyone talks about how capital is taking a bigger slice of the rewards pie now than labor, but a 50% death rate pandemic acts sort of like UBI / yang bucks / whatever, by making same capital chase after much rarer labor. Labor is scarce, returns go up.
4 replies 0 retweets 23 likesShow this thread -
8/ but getting back to economic / technological collapse, if we lost ~ 40% of the population, I think we'd do OK. At that level, networks still heal, is my hunch. But at some level, maybe around there, certain types of tech get abandoned. We likely stop launching satellites.
4 replies 0 retweets 17 likesShow this thread -
9/ Chip fabs, at least some of them, close. Chip fabs and software depend on economics of scale. Ship half as many units, and you can't run at a profit. Not all of them, tho. I think we'd stay in the 21st century. ...but maybe not advance processor or RAM tech for 50 years.
3 replies 0 retweets 19 likesShow this thread -
10/ Software sector probably shrinks ... but maybe not? with labor scarce, perhaps returns to automation CLIMB ? Fewer coders working on websites, more on robots ?
4 replies 0 retweets 19 likesShow this thread -
11/ This is all at some number - I'm saying 40% death rate, world wide. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe these effects are at 25-30%, and 40-50% is actually a whole new level / type of reaction Instead of falling back to ~ 2005 tech, maybe the next level causes us to fall back to 1960?
3 replies 0 retweets 12 likesShow this thread
12/ One thing to think about is that technology level in 1960 wasn't merely defined by "what we've discovered / invented by 1960", but also "what the economies of scale of the 1960 customer base allowed". Look at action movies or video games. US population in 1960 was 180 M.
-
-
13/ So a movie would have to cover its budget by selling tickets to ~ 180 M people, max. Today an action movie sells to US, EU, China, India. So the same movie can sell tickets to ~1.5 B people. 7x the market means 7x the budget.
2 replies 0 retweets 14 likesShow this thread -
14/ and at that budget you can afford things that you couldn't afford at all at the smaller budget. So one tool (among many) to think about such things is to look at what tech level we supported at various population levels. We would, I think, partially retract that path.
3 replies 0 retweets 12 likesShow this thread
End of conversation
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.