2/ A moment ago you were asserting that the correct number was 2%. I'm happy that you've adjusted your number by a factor of 1,800%. Your mistake was was assuming that your prior (based on your lack of knowledge of SF authors) was the same as my prior.https://twitter.com/cosmicdog/status/1202045158109274112?s=19 …
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Wrong. Your logic and understanding of Bayes is incorrect. The context for discussion is not American missions to the moon, but rather science fiction writers across the world. So, general demographics apply in the second case, but not the first.
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naked special pleading thankfully the laws of physics do not break down in the presence of these :)
End of conversation
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A simple walk through Wikipedia’s list of SF authors (not comprehensive, but it’s what I’ve got) shows about 55% of the authors are American. About 63% of all SF authors are male (worldwide). So, about 35% of SF writers are American men. Which is a minority.
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