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MorlockP's profile
ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs
ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs
ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs
@MorlockP

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ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs

@MorlockP

Two-time Prometheus award-winning hard science fiction author. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B005JPPMS6  Learn how to homestead https://www.amazon.com/dp/B093BC3K1T 

Aristillus Crater, Luna
amazon.com/dp/B005JPPMS6
Joined June 2012

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    1. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

      12/ note again: this is CONSTANT DOLLARS. So we're seeing that people produce 2.2 times as much / earn 2.2 times as much over 50 years. Extrapolating to 100 years, that's a 5x. Population has done a 3.5x wealth increase x population increase = 20x compared to your figure of

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    2. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

      13/ whatr was it? a 2500% increase in the money supply? or, in other words ... 25x ? OMG, OMG, OMG we're seeing money supply grow by 25x while the economy grows by 20x ...over a century 🤔

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    3. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted

      14/ I addressed maturity transformation earlier when I said that we trade apples for oranges all the time, at ratios that are not 1:1 ... and "dollars today" vs "dollars in 1 year" are like apples and oranges. https://twitter.com/sconzey/status/1188964682691940353 …

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    4. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

      15/ Now, your SPECIFIC example is a bit of a cheat because you're not announcing the maturity transformation until after the IOU has been accepted. In reality when I buy a debt note (a bond that pays principle in 20 years) I know the transformation when I buy it.

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    5. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

      16/ Trade is good. Trade creates value. Farmer A has more apples than he wants. Farmer B has more oranges than he wants. Letting them trade creates utility for both of them. Same with "money now" vs "money later". >>>

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    6. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

      17/ When I was 25 I wanted to buy a house, but had no money. I wanted a loan. Now that I'm 48 I have a fully paid off house and have surplus cash that is doing me no good. I want to make loans. This is maturity transformation. This is trading apples for oranges THIS IS GOOD

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    7. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted

      18/ I've already asked in this thread and gotten no answer: what percent of your net worth do you store in cash? I ask this every time, and no one EVER answers. Odd. https://twitter.com/SoSayethBob/status/1188960072409341952 …

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    8. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

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      19/ > that's fucking moronic basically argument from ignorance: "I can't understand what utility others see in it, therefore there's definitely no utility" have you investigated "price stickiness" yet? https://twitter.com/SoSayethBob/status/1188959406471270400 …

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    9. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted

      20/ If the Fed prints $50 million while the size of the real economy grows by $50 million, there is 0% inflation let me give an example https://twitter.com/Bobthewelder3/status/1188968660888702976 …

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    10. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

      21/ We all agree, I assume (hope) that the exchange rate of apples to dollars depends on the number of apples out there, and the number of dollars chasing apples? If we keep dollars constant and double apples, prices of apples denominated in dollars fall. If reverse, rise.

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      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

      22/ If we have 300 million Americans and each has 1 dollar and each wants to buy 1 apple today with that dollar, and we have 300 million apples <handwave> the market clearing price is $1/apple.

      5:02 PM - 28 Oct 2019
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        2. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

          23/ If we add 50 million new Americans through birth / immigration / cloning, and each has the same apple demand curve, and we don't introduce any more apples, prices climb. But say that 1 in 1000 Americans grows apples, and grows 1,000 apples each. Pop growth -> apple growth

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        3. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

          24/ So we still have one apple per person. HOWEVER we have failed to increase the money supply. There are 350 M people who want 350 M apples, but only 300 M dollars. Apples are now 85 cents each, and wages have likewise dropped by 15%. When pop grows we need to grow $ supply

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        4. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

          25/ and deflation is BAD. When your boss tells you "new deflation figures are in, we need every employee to accept a 1% paycut...but good news, it's only nominal not real" no one is happy.

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        5. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted

          26/ Fed doesn't run a deficit, US gov does. Agree, if the Fed increases money supply faster than population, we get inflation. However MODEST INFLATION IS GOOD. Far better than deflation. https://twitter.com/Bobthewelder3/status/1188970092551430146 …

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        6. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

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          27/ That's not "hidden" inflation. That's regular inflation. Inflation only hurts two ways: 1) cash holdings 2) UNCERTAIN inflation prevents ideal business investment https://twitter.com/Bobthewelder3/status/1188970092551430146 …

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        7. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted Snake

          28/ The utility in inflation is not "wow, it's great that we've had 10,000% when you compound it over years". The utility is "it's always better to have +0.2% per quarter than -0.2%". So you aim to have errors on one side of the target.https://twitter.com/tigerboy74u/status/1188970535524261895 …

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          Snake @tigerboy74u
          Replying to @MorlockP
          I understand what you're saying but I think this is actually totally immaterial because wages aren't actually dropping, the dollar is just worth 15% more Somehow a gallon of milk costing three cents in 1910 didn't end the world, so I fail to see any utility in infaltion
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        8. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted Snake

          29/ I've explained this. * deflation is QUITE BAD * modest predictable inflation has almost zero downside * therefore you should always aim slightly at the pro inflation side of the target, to avoid bad deflation 100% of the value is avoiding deflationhttps://twitter.com/tigerboy74u/status/1188971108776599552 …

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          Snake @tigerboy74u
          Replying to @MorlockP
          How Notice I haven't said lending or banking is bad I'm still waiting on a response on way inflation is good ever rather than a stable, fixed value currency
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        9. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

          30/ OK, maybe not 100%. Some minor part of the utility of inflation is that it lets moderately unsuccessful businesses and moderately defective employees stay in place and avoid painful "creative destruction" that would otherwise be required.

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        10. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted Snake

          31/ I've said "sticky prices" several times.https://twitter.com/tigerboy74u/status/1188971518815899649 …

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          Snake @tigerboy74u
          Replying to @MorlockP
          Brother I'm asking why deflation is bad
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        11. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

          32/ https://market.subwiki.org/wiki/Price_stickiness …

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        12. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

          33/ But to expand for folks who don't want to read the whole thing: imagine a firm making widgets with productivity X. Measured in apples, it produces 1,000 apples worth of value per week.

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        13. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

          34/ If the firm has 100 employees each earning $10/week, it's paying out 1,000 apples worth of wages per week. We'll ignore cost of goods sold, rent, etc.

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        14. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

          35/ So now, let's imagine some deflation. Either the fed screws up the fiat currency, or there is a surge in demand for gold elsewhere in the world, and there's less gold sloshing around the US. 10% deflation. Apples now cost 90 cents each. The firm is paying out $10/person.

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        15. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

          36/ Wow, those lucky employees! Last week they could buy 10 apples with their weekly paycheck, but this week they can buy 11 apples with their weekly paycheck! Except ... the firm has to sell widgets. Exchange rate of apples / widgets hasn't changed. Only NOMINAL prices did

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        16. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

          37/ So the firm has to drop its price of widgets by 10% in order keep up with the general deflation. But, hey, it's MERELY nominal prices. So firm goes to employees. "Guys, dollars are worth 10% more this week...so we're paying you 10% less"

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        17. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

          38/ Employee: the HELL you are Boss: no, it's cool. We gave you $10 last week and you could buy 10 apples, and we're going to give you $9 this week...and you can still buy 10 apples. YOUR SALARY HASN'T CHANGED IN REAL TERMS. Employees: <rioting INTENSIFIES> <strike starts>

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        18. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted Snake

          39/ I feel that this is kind of a loaded question, because I'm defending "fiat currency is real" and "deflation is bad", and folks are trying to hit me with every single policy they dislike, as if they're all the same thing. And they're not.https://twitter.com/tigerboy74u/status/1188973750475059201 …

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          Snake @tigerboy74u
          Replying to @MorlockP
          So what happens on a fiat currency when you have a massive trade deficit and a skyrocketing national debt? What happens when no one wants USD anymore because it’s an abstract share of an underwater economy?
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        19. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

          40/ > when you have a massive trade deficit first of all, it's rarely the case that there are real and prolonged deficits we export a lot of things. many of them are services. one of the big ones is "economic stability" when we export dollars, tons of them flow back >>>

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        20. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

          41/ to buy things like "bank accounts denominated in American dollars" and "real estate subject to the rule of law".

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        21. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted

          42/ slightly, yes, I am. The problem with hard money is that the money supply does not scale in sync with the overall economy. Remember "won't be crucified on a cross of gold" from high school history? that said, I like multiple competing currencies https://twitter.com/relicn0cer/status/1188973952015712258 …

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        22. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

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          43/ ok, ALL SORTS of things are getting dragged in and conflated. what's the change in demand for housing? what's the change in supply of labor? what's the USG's actual (not official) policy on illegal aliens? have carpenters upped their productivity? https://twitter.com/Bobthewelder3/status/1188974485191479298 …

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        23. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

          44/ also, any time I see statistics, I want to know WHAT DO THEY REALLY MEAN. In that graph that @Bobthewelder3 presents, what's the definition of "construction worker" in 1975? Today? What percent were crane operators then? Today?

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        24. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted

          45/ there's some truth here, but also there's explicit PRC industrial policy, US policy (commoditizing compliments of our speciality which is high tech white collar products, and which crushes blue collar workers), also aspects of >>> https://twitter.com/Bobthewelder3/status/1188975865817899013 …

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        25. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

          46/ "well, just bc Blue Collar Jim wants to earn $25/hr making Snap On wrenches is no reason to forbid @MorlockP from buying a $1 good-enough Chinese wrench" and also, of course, automation I wonder if the construction wages are falling bc of prefab etc

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        26. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted

          47/ ok, fine, but neither one of these is topics that I chose to defend / am defending https://twitter.com/Bobthewelder3/status/1188976318345560065 …

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        27. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

          ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs Retweeted

          48/ well, sure One can't defend the use of copper in electric wiring without, at 5 removes, getting dragged into a debate about three toed sloths impacted by the train lines that carry workers to the factory that makes wire drawing machines https://twitter.com/Bobthewelder3/status/1188976671975755778 …

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        28. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

          49/ but just because all things tie together does not mean that when I set out a thesis that I am willing to defend ("fiat currency is actually currency") that I am signing up to debate and/or defend every single topic in the field of economics.

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        29. ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 28 Oct 2019

          50/ 50 is a good number. I'm done. Punching back into work after (checks clock) 1.5 hours of dinner and nonsense.

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        30. End of conversation

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