this is part of an argument I've made before: Steve Pinker, etc. are naive to say that there is a secular decline in war because of our nature. we might be shifting CURVE of war: reducing likelihood of medium & large wars, and increasing the risk (from 0%?) of INSANELY HUGE oneshttps://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1153765033949745152 …
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don't have the books to hand but e.g. https://stevenpinker.com/files/comments_on_taleb_by_s_pinker.pdf …pic.twitter.com/EZRbmB1og4
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