2/ what does Steve Pinker's secular decline in wars look like? "fewer medium and large wars from 1945 to today" what does my "AVERAGE deaths per year from war remains constant, but exponent used to calculate the zipf curve changes" look like? SAME. EXACT. THING.
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3/ ...at least, given a mere 50-70 years of data. Ties into the economist concept of "picking up pennies in front of the steamroller". Perhaps our QoL has been so good over the last few decades because we're not averaging a sample that includes all the expected outcomes ?
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4/ As Clarkhat used to say: "gigadeaths are coming".
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5/ Anyway, I'm structuring my life for antifragility, so that I'd have a decent chance of doing OK in a Lincoln level war (3% of US population murdered) or even a deca-Lincoln war (30% killed). Real estate near me isn't that expensive. Wouldn't you like to be my neighbor?
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It seems improbable that our present society would build a system that suppresses & contains smaller-scale problems until failing utterly and catastrophically. Surely not.
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I always figured: since WWs we've just had (kinda) imperial peace, a phenomenon well-known for all of history imperium falls, peace goes with it but people whose idea of historical perspective is one lifetime think "new paradigm never seen before! permanent change!"
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It seems the main change has been to shift the LOCATION of the deaths to places where it doesn't bother us so much, especially if we have few of our troops directly involved.
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That's like the summary of three of Taleb's books.
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Maybe as weapons and weapons systems have become more destructive and more stand-off, our conflicts are so deadly that we can't tolerate engaging in large-scale ones but every half-century to century or so. I fear for the AI/robotics/drone future.
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