So, Rule 3: when the followers invariably screw the organization over by murdering civilians, the leader has to protect the organization by distancing it from the actions.
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There are a variety of ways to do this. PFLP, Fatah, and the Red Brigades don’t claim an action until there’s been positive press coverage. Hezbollah has fictitious organizations claim responsibility for damaging actions.
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And, of course, damage control: apologizing, concession (a super-apology where you accept total responsibility), scapegoating, justification (“actually this is much more acceptable than it looks, because”), and/or bolstering (“but we have a fantastic free lunch program!”).
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So, what does this mean for militant violence here in the US? Well, here are some interesting ramifications of Abrahms’s work.
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If you take the bull male elephants out of a herd, the younger males run rampant. If a gang leader is arrested, the violence level of his gang ticks up. So what happens when a terrorist leader is killed in a decapitating drone strike?
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Answer: the late terrorist leader's organization starts killing more civilians.
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This is what happened as Israel launched decapitation strikes against the Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade during the Second Intifada. Suddenly, the lower-level fighters were freed up to do more of what they really wanted to do, which was to kill Israeli civilians.
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Which, in turn, of course, undercut popular support for the peace process among Israelis.
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If you think about it, this creates a perverse incentive for counterterrorists: with decapitating strikes, you can actually get your enemies to increase their attacks on civilians, which undermines their public support.
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It also sounds kind of like what antifa’s done pretty effectively to white nationalist organizations, doesn’t it?
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