2/ ...and further, that science fiction novel should show what happens to the would-be manipulator and his money!https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1141446400850321408 …
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I'm at a loss to think of an example of a prediction market where no one cares about the answer. That isn't a market. It's just people saying random shit that occasionally aligns with reality.
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Not sure if this exactly what you are looking for but you might want to check out the sci-fi novel “Earthweb” by Marc Stiegler He has predictive markets as a plot device for figuring out the best way to defeat the alien death ship ravaging Earth Interesting novel
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