I've never understood what 'strong opinions loosely held' is supposed to mean aside from 'arrogant but unreliable'
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i.e. it's better to hypothesize "people are motivated to go to college because it's a social signalling mechanism" than "I dunno, people just do stuff"
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...is my understanding of what the phrase means. I do not endorse it, or really have an opinion on it at all (so...I'm wishy washy on whether it's ok to be wishy washy ?!?!)
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In order to have any impact on the world/ overcome inertia, it is necessary to act from a place of conviction. In order to survive and continue to act, it is necessary to be able to update those convictions with new givens.
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so I've been working on a Bayesian inference engine this week and it turns out that if your prior probability of Pr(A|B) is really uncertain, you don't want to just use the expectation of its distribution when you compute Pr(B|A)
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