my priors on the mail "bombs" yesterday: 80% - Dem / SDS / Antifa 10% - mentally ill 10% - Trumper Today, with more data: 5% - Dem / SDS / Antifa (with van being a 2nd level of false flag) 80% - mentally ill 15% - sane Trumper so, basically, waiting to see if he's sane or not
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2/ I say this in order to convey: * my guess yesterday was likely wrong * I update my opinions when data changes I'm seeing far too many people pivot seamlessly from "100% likely it was a Dem false flag" to "100% likely he's insane" Own your errors, folks.
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"clearly" I try to avoid being 100% certain of thing with almost zero data
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