my priors on the mail "bombs" yesterday: 80% - Dem / SDS / Antifa 10% - mentally ill 10% - Trumper Today, with more data: 5% - Dem / SDS / Antifa (with van being a 2nd level of false flag) 80% - mentally ill 15% - sane Trumper so, basically, waiting to see if he's sane or not
-
Show this thread
-
2/ I say this in order to convey: * my guess yesterday was likely wrong * I update my opinions when data changes I'm seeing far too many people pivot seamlessly from "100% likely it was a Dem false flag" to "100% likely he's insane" Own your errors, folks.
9 replies 4 retweets 42 likesShow this thread -
This Tweet is unavailable.
-
but they didn't all get delivered at the same time
0 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
This Tweet is unavailable.
-
you just went from "all at the same time" to "with a 48 hour window". USPS delivers packages within a 48 hour window.
1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
This Tweet is unavailable.
now you're changing your criteria AGAIN to "via USPS" this thread isn't useful
10:34 AM - 26 Oct 2018
0 replies
0 retweets
1 like
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.