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MorlockP's profile
ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs
ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs
ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs
@MorlockP

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ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs

@MorlockP

Two-time Prometheus award-winning hard science fiction author. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B005JPPMS6  Learn how to homestead https://www.amazon.com/dp/B093BC3K1T 

Aristillus Crater, Luna
amazon.com/dp/B005JPPMS6
Joined June 2012

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    1. Megan McArdle‏Verified account @asymmetricinfo 29 Aug 2018

      Because of that, I you can't make strong claims that this is definitely a problem of the sexual revolution--it may be the level of abuse was fairly constant, but a combination of kids more willing to report, and liberalizing parents more willing to believe them, raised reporting.

      2 replies 2 retweets 17 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Megan McArdle‏Verified account @asymmetricinfo 29 Aug 2018

      That said, I think there's some reason to disbelieve this. Catholic parents were already liberalizing in the 1950s--my Dad is of that generation, and according to him, his family/parish expected Vatican II to go much farther than it did.

      2 replies 1 retweet 13 likes
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    3. Megan McArdle‏Verified account @asymmetricinfo 29 Aug 2018

      Also, priests from earlier generations were still active in the 60s & 70s, and kids from the 50s and before were still mostly alive in 2002 when the scandal broke. If this is really all reporting, the curve should look pretty smooth, reflecting demographics, instead of spiking

      1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
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    4. Megan McArdle‏Verified account @asymmetricinfo 29 Aug 2018

      Megan McArdle Retweeted Ross Douthat

      I am now going to try the technically difficult task of replying to a tweetstorm by @DouthatNYT within my own tweetstorm: https://twitter.com/DouthatNYT/status/1034812866854047744 … If I land this, I expect a perfect 10 from the judges.

      Megan McArdle added,

      Ross DouthatVerified account @DouthatNYT
      Replying to @DouthatNYT @asymmetricinfo
      But the Jay report specifically found that "the incidence of sexual molestation of a minor under eleven years of age did not vary as greatly throughout the period as did the molestation of older children."
      2 replies 1 retweet 21 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Megan McArdle‏Verified account @asymmetricinfo 29 Aug 2018

      So first, yes, people who think of this as a pedophilia scandal are wrong. Pedophilia level (pre-pubescent children) is low and basically constant. The abuse scandal is about pubescent and post-pubescent children, mostly boys. And it spikes in the 1960s, starts declining in 1980s

      6 replies 2 retweets 14 likes
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    6. Megan McArdle‏Verified account @asymmetricinfo 29 Aug 2018

      I'm not arguing that there isn't a cultural component here. I think there *is* a cultural component--many, in fact. Like the sexual revolution, which radically changed understandings, including Catholic understandings of sexual behavior.

      1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
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    7. Megan McArdle‏Verified account @asymmetricinfo 29 Aug 2018

      Also the belief that Freudian psychiatry and other forms of quackitude could cure sex offenders. A decline in vocations that left priests more isolated, with less community to supervise them. Many, many things. I also suspect environmental led may have played a role.

      1 reply 1 retweet 11 likes
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    8. Megan McArdle‏Verified account @asymmetricinfo 29 Aug 2018

      Lead damages impulse control. Where is environmental lead highest? In the urban "ethnic" areas where the generation of priests who formed vocations from the late 1950s on would disproportionately have grown up. Throw in a disinhibiting culture, and you have a mess.

      3 replies 1 retweet 13 likes
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    9. Megan McArdle‏Verified account @asymmetricinfo 29 Aug 2018

      I am specifically rejecting only the "homosexual influx into the seminaries caused this" theory. The timing is all wrong for that theory to work.

      1 reply 1 retweet 12 likes
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    10. Megan McArdle‏Verified account @asymmetricinfo 29 Aug 2018

      And you can't get around it by lagging the data, because the phenomenon peaks *before* the alleged homosexual subculture is reported to have arisen at some seminaries. It just won't work.

      4 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
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      ⓘ Dogs don't have thumbs‏ @MorlockP 29 Aug 2018
      Replying to @asymmetricinfo

      I'm a strong socialcon, so I'm slotted to believe "gay priests", but I think that in the real world problems always have a dozen causes. Lead exposure, cultural permisivity, less supervision, less fellowship, more loneliness, THE CHANGE THAT CREATES IN THE SELECTION of priests...

      7:57 AM - 29 Aug 2018
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Megan McArdle‏Verified account @asymmetricinfo 29 Aug 2018
          Replying to @MorlockP

          Oh, we haven't even gotten into my theories about what Catholic use of contraception, and therefore the change in family desire for vocations among their shrinking number of children.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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