False equivalency and incorrect. 你试一试说我不明白中国吗?你说我不明白网店市场吗? 好运
Yeah, that's a good point. Downside risk is just one part of the story. I'd say the other half is network effects. BABA is a lot bigger than JD and e-commerce marketplaces don't play catch up like retail does.
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Taking a 1% stake is hardly nationalization. Most VIE structures which broke down were not govt-driven, but mgmt-driven (Alipay, GigaMedia, etc). Post-industrial revolution, any large country which industrialized copied their predecessors, and grew much faster as a result.
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I think you vastly over-estimate the risk of nationalization (outright or implied) because you insist on a “heavy” discount. Unsure regarding your definition of “heavy” but lets say conservatively you mean 30% We don’t see 3 in 10 firms getting nationalized.
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