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Molson_Hart's profile
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
@Molson_Hart

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Molson Hart

@Molson_Hart

CEO at http://amazon.com/viahart . CEO at http://edisonlf.com . I tweet about business, e-commerce, supply chain, health, law, & infrastructure

Austin, TX
Joined July 2015

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    1. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 9 May 2018
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      Replying to @wondurrrrboy @Fritz844 @TodayRSS

      False equivalency and incorrect. 你试一试说我不明白中国吗?你说我不明白网店市场吗? 好运

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. 「 LG 」‏ @wondurrrrboy 9 May 2018
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @Fritz844 @TodayRSS

      Perhaps you interpret a 100% extraction of profits in perpetuity differently - that's fair. More to the point, I don't mean the Chinese government can't do exactly what you suggested. I just think its disingenuous to think China is the only one that does it.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 9 May 2018
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      Replying to @wondurrrrboy @Fritz844 @TodayRSS

      Obviously it is not. However it is quite obvious that the chance of this happening in China is significantly higher than in the U.S. therefore whatever you think the company is worth, you must discount it, in my eyes, heavily.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. 「 LG 」‏ @wondurrrrboy 9 May 2018
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @Fritz844 @TodayRSS

      I don't disagree with your broad brush that the probability is higher in China. But a broad brush does not apply well to n=1 situations. Significantly higher than a remote probability (assuming the risk of this happening in US is remote), is still fairly remote.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 9 May 2018
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      Replying to @wondurrrrboy @Fritz844 @TodayRSS

      My brush isn't that broad. 1. PRC has made it clear that it wants ownership in firms like Alibaba, Tencent, and http://JD.com  - which is not par for the course when it comes to stock ownership 2. We are talking about a country where this conversation cannot even exist

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 9 May 2018
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @wondurrrrboy and

      3. There is a long history of foreigners learning that what they think they own, what they should own according to "global norms" is not theirs. The semi-legal VIE structure is one such example

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 9 May 2018
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @wondurrrrboy and

      4. You're from Singapore. Singapore built an entire city in Suzhou as a model for positive economic development. What happened after that? Chinese local gov't duplicated it next door and undercut it via lower tax rates. Par for the course.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 9 May 2018
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @wondurrrrboy and

      5. This is the main point. If you look at my original tweet, I didn't say I'm bearing on JD, I said people underestimate the gov't risk of it going to zero either by government "assassination" or simple nationalization.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 9 May 2018
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @wondurrrrboy and

      This whole conversation is stupid. I mean...JD is cheap because smart people know you can't trust the Chinese gov't. You know what else is cheap? Russia. It's cheap for a reason.

      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 9 May 2018
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      Replying to @TodayRSS @wondurrrrboy @Fritz844

      Yeah, that's a good point. Downside risk is just one part of the story. I'd say the other half is network effects. BABA is a lot bigger than JD and e-commerce marketplaces don't play catch up like retail does.

      1:38 PM - 9 May 2018
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        2. 「 LG 」‏ @wondurrrrboy 9 May 2018
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          Replying to @Molson_Hart @TodayRSS @Fritz844

          Taking a 1% stake is hardly nationalization. Most VIE structures which broke down were not govt-driven, but mgmt-driven (Alipay, GigaMedia, etc). Post-industrial revolution, any large country which industrialized copied their predecessors, and grew much faster as a result.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. 「 LG 」‏ @wondurrrrboy 9 May 2018
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          Replying to @wondurrrrboy @TodayRSS @Fritz844

          I think you vastly over-estimate the risk of nationalization (outright or implied) because you insist on a “heavy” discount. Unsure regarding your definition of “heavy” but lets say conservatively you mean 30% We don’t see 3 in 10 firms getting nationalized.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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