What I'm trying to say is that if you have those positive characteristics (good infr., demographic dividend, sensible policy, smart people), relative to a developed country, plus a cost differential, you can probably create a middle class without protectionism.
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Nor do I suggest this is China specific in any way btw. Hungary opened up much more in the 90s and we have only started to see anything remotely resembling innovation in Budapest recently.
Every country is different. Hungary is smaller and lacks China's coast. It's really hard to say what is the ingenuity or other positive attributes of a country and what is a successful protectionist policy.
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True, true. It's all speculative. My main method is to try to identify consistent phenomena across different cultures/sizes/points in history. But at the end of the day I don't think knowledge in this domain is objective, it's just slightly more vs less likely.
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Agreed on both points. Fortunately we have many countries to check like Singapore, which you would know more than I would about.
End of conversation
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At the end of the day though, we probably agree that it is probably somewhat useful at particular points in development to have protectionist policies in some industries in order to foster their growth.
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Yeah, and I think definitely agree that it's near impossible to settle these things with anything even remotely resembling scientific accuracy. There's way too few data points for way too many variables.
End of conversation
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