Molson Hart

Maybe this is due to my weak Chinese language skills and maybe it is due to my over developed sense of cynicism but the public statements and speeches in China are borderline irrelevant. Follow me here 1/n

First, in censored/authoritarian state, words are very weak signals. Everybody says very bland things or says nothing at all. Beijing says things at Davos that are just patently absurd about how open it is or how it is the worlds largest democracy. In China, words mean little 2/n

Second, Beijing makes official/public information targeting very different populations. What they say at Davos in English and what they say at Chinese language only conferences VERY different. Consequently, the big press events all about who is consuming it 3/n

Third, only reason the words matter is to frame how they want to be perceived. In Davos, Beijing talks about how open they are while at industry meetings they talk about how they are going to wreck the Americans and push back etc. It's about messaging which Beijing is good at 4/n

Fourth, what matters to me is simple: how do they behave which is much more observable. Beijing has talked for years about debt and it is still growing faster than nominal GDP and that gap will grow this year. They've talked for years about not providing a guarantee but 5/n