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Molson_Hart's profile
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
@Molson_Hart

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Molson Hart

@Molson_Hart

CEO at http://amazon.com/viahart . CEO at http://edisonlf.com . I tweet about business, e-commerce, supply chain, health, law, & infrastructure

Austin, TX
Joined July 2015

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    1. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 15 Mar 2018
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      Hmm...a lot companies going bankrupt while the economy "booms" - feels funny.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Gergely Svigruha‏ @gsvigruha 15 Mar 2018
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      Got data or just anecdotal?

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    3. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 16 Mar 2018
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      Replying to @gsvigruha

      Tru, bonton, iHeartRadio...anecdotal

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    4. Gergely Svigruha‏ @gsvigruha 16 Mar 2018
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      There are several things pointing to an upcoming recession mid term though. There's Shiller's CAPE, and this too: https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2018/march/economic-forecasts-with-yield-curve/ …

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 16 Mar 2018
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      Replying to @gsvigruha

      Does shillers cape predict recessions? I thought it was only indicative of long-term market returns?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Gergely Svigruha‏ @gsvigruha 16 Mar 2018
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      Ehm, good question. I guess if a lot of things are extremely overvalued at the same time that sort of predicts a recession?

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    7. Gergely Svigruha‏ @gsvigruha 16 Mar 2018
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      Replying to @gsvigruha

      The correct answer seems to be: kinda. http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/ 

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    8. Gergely Svigruha‏ @gsvigruha 16 Mar 2018
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      Replying to @gsvigruha

      Also i've been conflating the terms recession and market crash.

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    9. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 16 Mar 2018
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      Replying to @gsvigruha

      Off the top of my head (you might like Irrational Exuberance), I want to say Shillers PE would not differentiate between a market declining 50% then going up 200% and staying flat for 10 years.

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    10. Gergely Svigruha‏ @gsvigruha 16 Mar 2018
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      Thanks i'll check it out! I mean if the economy follows chaotic dynamics (and i'm almost sure it does) any prediction can be only short term, provisional and to be treated with skepticism.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 16 Mar 2018
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      Replying to @gsvigruha

      Agreed. Though, and you may agree, I might say that not even short-term predictions for the economy are much use.

      11:33 AM - 16 Mar 2018
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Gergely Svigruha‏ @gsvigruha 16 Mar 2018
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          Replying to @Molson_Hart

          I don't think they don't have any use personally for most people. The most i would say is that an idea of the probability space can be useful for policy making.

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