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SPECULATION: A previously inflexible regime is doomed when it starts giving *partial* concessions/reform. + Gorbachev + Iranian (1st) rev. + Russian rev. + Assad's release of Islamist prisoners + French rev. More examples? Counteramples?
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Inflexible regimes are always doomed regardless of whether they are tightening or loosening control. North Korea would be a counterexample. They have liberalized their economy and don't seem to be losing control of their people.