Measured how? On a percentage basis? I would think that every year after the advent of containerization would have higher trade.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
I think %/GDP, let me check this. But no, global trade was def lower after WWII for a while and maybe during the interwar years too.
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Replying to @gsvigruha
I mean, that would be expected though right? That alone doesn't falsify the idea that international trade deters war.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
If you have a few data points (wars) and infinite variables (society) nothing really proves or falsifies anything. Point is we don't know.
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Replying to @gsvigruha
I agree with more or less everything you wrote. That said, qualitatively, ignoring our limited data, ceteris paribus, should deter war.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
Maybe we should take this off twitter, but i'm also not convinced it's necessarily the case in principle.
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Replying to @gsvigruha
Yeah 140 char no good. Hit me up next time you see me I guess? Alternatively, here's basically my thinking:
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @gsvigruha
Trade between two countries => dependence and familiarity in those 2 countries, which both create disincentives to war.
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @gsvigruha
I checked out your graphs. Yes, trade has a local peak before WWI but as you said, we have a sample size of 2?
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Replying to @Molson_Hart
i mean i think it's inconclusive. it can only disprove the strongest form of the thesis (high levels of trade always prevents war) w/ 1 data
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