Molson Hart

He published it in 1910 and developed the thesis that war in Europe was very unlikely...

Global trade was at its highest ever except for now before WWI.

Measured how? On a percentage basis? I would think that every year after the advent of containerization would have higher trade.

I think %/GDP, let me check this. But no, global trade was def lower after WWII for a while and maybe during the interwar years too.

I mean, that would be expected though right? That alone doesn't falsify the idea that international trade deters war.

If you have a few data points (wars) and infinite variables (society) nothing really proves or falsifies anything. Point is we don't know.

I agree with more or less everything you wrote. That said, qualitatively, ignoring our limited data, ceteris paribus, should deter war.

Maybe we should take this off twitter, but i'm also not convinced it's necessarily the case in principle.