I don't fully understand The Great Illusion. I think there is merit to the idea that trade between countries prevents war.
Trade between two countries => dependence and familiarity in those 2 countries, which both create disincentives to war.
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I checked out your graphs. Yes, trade has a local peak before WWI but as you said, we have a sample size of 2?
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i mean i think it's inconclusive. it can only disprove the strongest form of the thesis (high levels of trade always prevents war) w/ 1 data
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