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Molson_Hart's profile
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
@Molson_Hart

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Molson Hart

@Molson_Hart

CEO at http://amazon.com/viahart . CEO at http://edisonlf.com . I tweet about business, e-commerce, supply chain, health, law, & infrastructure

Austin, TX
Joined July 2015

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    1. Gergely Svigruha‏ @gsvigruha 11 Oct 2017
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      Some heuristics: if obscure now but was popular before -> rubbish. 1/2

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 11 Oct 2017
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      Replying to @gsvigruha

      The bible is out then. I can't really think of many examples of this (definitionally) - can you? I know about lindy effect.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Gergely Svigruha‏ @gsvigruha 11 Oct 2017
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      From the top of my head (yes, definitionally hard): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Angell#The_Great_Illusion … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End_of_History_and_the_Last_Man …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Gergely Svigruha‏ @gsvigruha 11 Oct 2017
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      Replying to @gsvigruha

      The bible is still v/ popular btw just not in Europe. It mentions e.g. positive feedback loops crucial to marketing http://biblehub.com/matthew/13-12.htm …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 11 Oct 2017
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      Replying to @gsvigruha

      Yeah I was just being facetious. Fukuyama is a damn good example. Capitalist democracy is not a Nash equilibrium (if you are a general!)

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    6. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 11 Oct 2017
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @gsvigruha

      I don't fully understand The Great Illusion. I think there is merit to the idea that trade between countries prevents war.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Gergely Svigruha‏ @gsvigruha 11 Oct 2017
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      He published it in 1910 and developed the thesis that war in Europe was very unlikely...

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Gergely Svigruha‏ @gsvigruha 11 Oct 2017
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      Replying to @gsvigruha

      Global trade was at its highest ever except for now before WWI.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 11 Oct 2017
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      Replying to @gsvigruha

      Measured how? On a percentage basis? I would think that every year after the advent of containerization would have higher trade.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Gergely Svigruha‏ @gsvigruha 11 Oct 2017
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      I think %/GDP, let me check this. But no, global trade was def lower after WWII for a while and maybe during the interwar years too.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 11 Oct 2017
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      Replying to @gsvigruha

      I mean, that would be expected though right? That alone doesn't falsify the idea that international trade deters war.

      11:37 AM - 11 Oct 2017
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Gergely Svigruha‏ @gsvigruha 11 Oct 2017
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          Replying to @Molson_Hart

          If you have a few data points (wars) and infinite variables (society) nothing really proves or falsifies anything. Point is we don't know.

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        2. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart 11 Oct 2017
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          Replying to @gsvigruha

          I agree with more or less everything you wrote. That said, qualitatively, ignoring our limited data, ceteris paribus, should deter war.

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