What I can see launch is smth that pulls partners closer to other AMZ functions eg markeplace, FBA, AWS even, and yes the new service-as-a-service etc. The thesis is good, just last mile logistics is anomaly. Why? - logistics needs to be cheaper - but gets more expensive.
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I'll end on this: my virtual handshake bet (you don't have to take it :-)) is that in two years time, if SWA exists at all, it is a boutique thing with a v diff pricing and use model than Prime/FBA kind of deals. Also: the DTC folks peeling away from mktplace won't use Amazon.
I wouldn't take the bet. Don't forget about the people who sell on Amazon who have non-Amazon business. If Amazon served where our warehouse is we'd look at it.
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As I say, SWA as a way to drive /marketplace/ would analogise with FBA as a way to drive marketplace. I just cannot see a thru-line for an AWS-style SWA which doesn't drive something else. Quite apart from rising unit costs, and all the DTC folks + Shop etc coming out to play.
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There's lots of ways for AMZN to sell logistics, and many ways that Amazon can and will do that using the efficiencies they have developed. For sure! It's just that won't be like, or be sold like, AWS, even if that's how it's interpreted if and when it arrives. That's my claim.
End of conversation
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