Molson Hart

I could be wrong, but I think the market will ultimately realize that the reopening narrative is a fad. Covid is very hard to contain even in places like Beijing where strict measures are being taken. Consumer psyche will be permanently damaged unless we have a vaccine.

TLDR: an increasing number of neighborhoods are going back in lockdown. Officials warn that the situation is severe (“严峻”) and that there's a lot of uncertainty ("不确定性").

I think people in the West don't give a fuck and will just deal with 0.1-1% or whatever it is of the population dying over the next year. There won't be another concentrated effort to contain the virus in the US, it's too late. They fired all they had and it just crippled them.

I think consumers in the West won't behave rationally WRT to the virus and will gladly jump back into unfettered consumerism as soon as they can.