Friends, can someone check my logic Re: Masks? Any error? If so Masks could SOLVE the pandemic. I have been saying Masks are NECESSARY since Feb, didn't realize they could be SUFFICIENT!pic.twitter.com/2Gk8q3LPCb
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Math looks good, but the prediction is a bit overoptimistic, imho. 1. If everyone wears masks, transmission falls but does not go to zero (elevators, bathrooms with airborne fecal matter, sex) and even outdoor masked to masked person is possible 2. Excepting sex, when
transmission occurs, it's likely that the recipient of the virus does not know they got it. So when they get home they will spread it to their family, including children and cats. Children and cats have poor mask compliance. Both can transmit the virus to adults AFAIK 3. Japan
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which is going to have the best mask compliance in the world because of the culture, is finding new clusters. In summary, having everybody wear masks reduces r0 a lot, but not as much as the math suggests.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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