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Molson_Hart's profile
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
@Molson_Hart

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Molson Hart

@Molson_Hart

CEO at http://amazon.com/viahart . CEO at http://edisonlf.com . I tweet about business, e-commerce, supply chain, health, law, & infrastructure

Austin, TX
Joined July 2015

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    1. Joe Shipman‏ @joe_shipman May 23
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      POKER PUZZLE You are playing 4 card poker. Your friend asks “am I more likely to be dealt a flush or a straight?“ You tell him, the dealer gives you your first card, and before you see any additional cards your friend says “are you sure?” What’s the probability you will say “no”?

      5 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
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    2. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart May 23
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      Replying to @joe_shipman

      Zero. In 4 card poker, a flush is more common than a straight. There is no card that you could draw that could change that.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart May 23
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @joe_shipman

      I misread the question. I will think and answer again.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart May 23
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @joe_shipman

      Doesn’t change my answer.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Joe Shipman‏ @joe_shipman May 23
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      Not all cards make the same contribution to straights, some belong to more straights than others.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart May 23
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      Replying to @joe_shipman

      Tough problem. Couldn't have done it without your hint. If you pull a King, Ace, or 2 it makes a straight more probable, so you have a 3/13 chance of saying "no" in this case.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Joe Shipman‏ @joe_shipman May 23
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      A 3 or a Queen also participate in fewer straights than average, so you have to check that case too.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart May 23
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      Replying to @joe_shipman

      I checked it. Flush still more likely. Right?

      7:05 PM - 23 May 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        1. Joe Shipman‏ @joe_shipman May 23
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          Replying to @Molson_Hart

          Yes, though not by much!

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        2. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart May 23
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          Replying to @joe_shipman

          IIRC it was like .0002

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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