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Molson_Hart's profile
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
Molson Hart
@Molson_Hart

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Molson Hart

@Molson_Hart

CEO at http://amazon.com/viahart . CEO at http://edisonlf.com . I tweet about business, e-commerce, supply chain, health, law, & infrastructure

Austin, TX
Joined July 2015

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    1. Joe Shipman‏ @joe_shipman May 23
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      POKER PUZZLE You are playing 4 card poker. Your friend asks “am I more likely to be dealt a flush or a straight?“ You tell him, the dealer gives you your first card, and before you see any additional cards your friend says “are you sure?” What’s the probability you will say “no”?

      5 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
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    2. Joe Shipman‏ @joe_shipman May 23
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      Extra credit: How does the answer change if you had seen his card instead of your own card?

      1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
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    3. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart May 23
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      Replying to @joe_shipman

      Maybe I miscalculated the chance of a 4 card straight but I don’t think it matters. My calculation for a 4 card straight:pic.twitter.com/7SwDNaHecN

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart May 23
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart @joe_shipman

      After seeing his card, chance of flush remains same. (12 choose 3)/(51 choose 3) = .0105 If you draw a 4 through Jack, chance of a straight is 4*4*4*4/(51 C 3) = .0122 If you draw Q through 3, chance of straight is less than .0105. You have 8/13 chance of saying no.

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    5. Joe Shipman‏ @joe_shipman May 23
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      Replying to @Molson_Hart

      Right answer, although the chance of a flush is not exactly the same because you have to take out a different number of straight flushes.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Molson Hart‏ @Molson_Hart May 23
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      Replying to @joe_shipman

      Thanks! Twitter is lucky to have you carry the torch for @CutTheKnotMathpic.twitter.com/E4TQn6HDNX

      7:05 PM - 23 May 2020
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      • Joe Shipman
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