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Maybe I miscalculated the chance of a 4 card straight but I don’t think it matters. My calculation for a 4 card straight:pic.twitter.com/7SwDNaHecN
After seeing his card, chance of flush remains same. (12 choose 3)/(51 choose 3) = .0105 If you draw a 4 through Jack, chance of a straight is 4*4*4*4/(51 C 3) = .0122 If you draw Q through 3, chance of straight is less than .0105. You have 8/13 chance of saying no.
Right answer, although the chance of a flush is not exactly the same because you have to take out a different number of straight flushes.
Thanks!
Twitter is lucky to have you carry the torch for @CutTheKnotMathpic.twitter.com/E4TQn6HDNX
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