Is the implication that as societies scale they become unsustainable because humans, with their mimetic tendencies, copy behaviors more often of the lucky than the skillful? It doesn’t seem to be that way in practice. It seems few people copy the people who’ve had the greatest
outcomes. And, further, while at first I agreed with the idea that as societies scale they’re greatest outcomes will be more a function of luck than skill, this also doesn’t seem to be born out in practice. Bezos, Gates, and Buffett seem more skilled than lucky.
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They're definitely extremely skilled. The scoreboard of solid companies is filled with skilled people (
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But the masses don't know Bezos and don't copy Bezos.
The participants to the scoreboard used by most people to determine who to copy are mostly there by luck. -
What I mean is that both are true and yet very different: - There is a lot of skill in Bezos success and probably a lot of it, if reproduced, would lead to great results - There is a lot of luck involved in getting top of mind of large chunks of the population of earth.
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Perhaps then the premise that variance in luck exceeds variance in skill is wrong? There’s a lot to think about here! And I’m far from having done the requisite thinking.
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