Bergamo is a fairly large city. I'm having a hard time prevalence of immunity was ~60% over there at the same time it was only ~20% at most in Milan. I think it's more plausible that the IFR is actually very high over there because something really went horribly in nursing homes.
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Replying to @phl43 @SilverVVulpes
Bergamo proper is like 110k people. Had less than 1k beds in nursing homes and like 200-250 dead there.
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Replying to @LucioMM1 @SilverVVulpes
I'm not sure what your conclusion is here, but nursing homes were just one example (the most obvious) of something that could have gone wrong and increased the IFR a lot, it could also be nosocomial infections in hospitals or whatever.
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My point is that I don't believe for a second that ~60% of the population has been infected in Bergamo where in Milan it's probably less than 20% even now.
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Replying to @phl43 @SilverVVulpes
Btw my guesstimate for BG province prevalence is at 45-50%, only some areas over 60
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I don't get how a whole province could be so high while New York city is at 20%. Well if it's only a million people though...
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NYC was 25% prevalence (Cuomo data) April 25th iirc
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I suspect that even that was an overestimate because they sampled people in grocery stores if I remember correctly.
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Right. Best studies show serological prevalence under 10% ie spainwide 60k sample 5%
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Replying to @Molson_Hart @phl43 and
Spain 5% is low-ball, igg only. With igm it goes to like 7 (eerily similar to Italy nationwide estimates)
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What a relief haha
4:26 PM - 18 May 2020
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